Let’s cut straight to the chase. The market for the 3.17 at Sedgefield has this completely upside down. We have a clear standout on the figures available at 9/2, while a regressing, exposed runner is propping up the market as the 2/1 favourite.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown of why Supreme George is the bet of the day.
The Selection: Supreme George (9/2)
The Data:
HRB Rating: 185.5 (Top Rated)
Form: 5535111
Age: 6 (Improver)
If you follow the ratings, this is an open-and-shut case. Supreme George is rated 185.5 by HorseRaceBase. The next best horse in the race (Double Digits) is on 154.4. That is a massive gulf in class for a handicap chase.
He is chasing a four-timer (hat-trick already secured), and his win at Catterick 34 days ago was authoritative. He beat today’s rival, Treaty Boy, by 7 lengths that day. Yes, the weight swing is 6lbs against him today, but a 7-length beating over fences is rarely overturned by a few pounds of lead.
He carries top weight (12-1), which is the only reason he is 9/2. But in this grade (Class 4), class acts carrying weight often outperform lighter, limited horses. He is the only runner in the field with a genuine upward curve.
The False Favourite: Double Digits (2/1)
The Data:
HRB Rating: 154.4
Form: 7211274
Last Run: 4th (beaten 16.7L)
Why is this horse 2/1? He is an 8-year-old who was hammered by nearly 17 lengths over this course last month. He carries 12-0, just 1lb less than the selection, yet lacks the recent winning momentum. The drop back in trip might help, but at 2/1, you are paying a premium for a horse that is essentially exposed. He is a classic “lay” or avoid.
The Danger: Sea Thrift (5/2)
If Supreme George gets beaten, it will be by this mare. She won at Plumpton just 9 days ago, so we know she is fit and well. Crucially, with Mr Robbie David’s 7lb claim, she is carrying a featherweight compared to the selection.
However, she has been raised in the weights for that win, and this is a quick turnaround. She is the forecast option, but not a value bet at 5/2 compared to the 9/2 on the top-rated horse.
The “No-Hopers”
Boston Boy: The notes explicitly say he is “one to note in staying races”. This is a sharp 2 miles around Sedgefield’s tight bends. He will likely get tapped for toe when the pace quickens.
Raffles Wonder: Pulled up last time out. Hard to trust.
Treaty Boy: Already held on form by Supreme George.
The Verdict
The bookies have priced this on weight rather than ability. Supreme George is the fastest, most progressive horse in the race. Getting 9/2 on a prolific winner rated 31 points clear of the field is simply the wrong price.
Bet: Supreme George @ 9/2
Next Best: Sea Thrift (for the Exacta)