Race: Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Handicap Chase
Conditions: 2m4f, Heavy, Class 4
Let’s not overcomplicate this. We have four runners, a heavy track, and a standout favourite who ticks every single box.
The Selection: OFFICER OF STATE (8/13)
The Gary & Josh Moore yard treat Lingfield like their personal playground. They took this race last year with Johnny Jump Up, and they’re back to do it again.
Officer Of State is the only horse in this field on a genuine upward curve. He arrives fresh from a convincing win at Windsor 20 days ago. Crucially, that was a Class 3 contest. Today, he drops down to Class 4 company yet still receives a massive 9lbs from the top weight.
His HRB rating (332.8) is streets ahead of the field, and his last-run figure (108.7) dwarfs the opposition. He stays further than this trip, handles soft ground with ease, and is the clear form pick.
The Danger: BIG CITY ROLLER (9/2)
If there is an upset, it comes from here. This horse is a bog warrior. Two starts back, he bolted up by 26 lengths on Heavy ground at Bangor. If Lingfield turns into a complete swamp, he’s the one who will relish it most. However, conceding 9lbs to an improving Moore horse is a monumental ask.
** The Others**
Sherborne: A solid 10-year-old, but his best days are likely behind him. Beaten 11 lengths last time and lacks the legs to challenge the favourite here.
Koenigsstern: Beaten 40 lengths over this course and distance two weeks ago. Impossible to fancy.
Verdict
It’s short odds, but it’s the right price. The Moore dominance at Lingfield combined with a drop in class makes this a penalty kick.
Win: OFFICER OF STATE
Forecast: Officer Of State to beat Big City Roller