Race: Late Roy Kneller 85th Birthday Mares Handicap Hurdle (Class 4)
Verdict: Masked Dance (6/1)
This is a classic handicap puzzle: do you back the “could be anything” unexposed type or the “been there, done that” course specialist? The market has sided with potential, but the data points to value elsewhere.
Here is the breakdown.
The Favourite: Sallyville Lady (5/2)
Dan Skelton is a master at placing mares in handicaps, and Sallyville Lady fits the profile. She is making her handicap debut off a mark of 111 after just two hurdle runs. Her second-place finish at Uttoxeter on heavy ground showed she has the engine and the stamina for today’s soft going.
The Problem: She is priced on reputation and potential, not achievement. At 5/2, you are paying for the Skelton factor. If she’s well-handicapped, she wins, but she lacks the battle-hardened experience of her rivals.
The Value Play: Masked Dance (6/1)
If you want a bet based on hard facts rather than guesswork, Masked Dance is the one.
Top Rated: She tops the HorseRaceBase ratings today (319.1).
Course Form: She is a Course & Distance winner, having landed a similar event here 49 days ago on Good to Soft.
Conditions: She handles the track, the trip, and the soft ground.
The Price: At 6/1, she is more than double the price of the favourite despite having the best recent form in the book. A 5lb rise for her last win is manageable.
The Solid Each-Way: Hard Dealt (100/30)
Henry Daly’s mare is as honest as they come. Her form line (6421622) tells you everything you need to know—she turns up and runs her race. She was a good second at Aintree last time out and remains on a workable mark of 108. It is hard to see her finishing out of the frame, though she may lack the killer instinct to hold off an improver.
Quick Hits
Greyval (15/2): The class act carrying top weight (12-0). She has beaten Masked Dance before (back in 2025) but giving weight away on soft ground at Ludlow is a tough ask for a mare out of form.
Dramatic Encore (8/1): Holds a 2-0 Head-to-Head record over Pismo Beach. If you like Pismo Beach, back Dramatic Encore instead.
Final Call
The Skelton runner is the obvious danger, but the value is with Masked Dance. She loves Ludlow, the ratings put her clear, and 6/1 is a generous price for a last-time-out course winner.
Win: Masked Dance
Saver: Sallyville Lady