We head to Town Moor for a Class 4 Handicap Chase over 2m 4½f. The ground is Good to Soft. On paper, the data points clearly to two main protagonists, but one stands out as the rightful favourite.
The Selection: Gentleman Bill (3/1)
This is a classic case of a horse dropping in grade and meeting the right opposition.
The Case:
Top Rated: He sits top of the HRB ratings on 307.0, a massive 8 points clear of the field.
Class Edge: He drops into Class 4 company after a credible 3rd in a Class 3 at Wetherby 41 days ago. He was beaten less than 4 lengths that day on Soft ground.
Collateral Form: In that same Wetherby race, he thumped today’s rival William Of York by over 7 lengths. There is no reason to suggest that form will reverse here.
Consistency: With form figures of 1-2-0-6-3-5-3, he is reliable over fences.
He is the solid, sensible play to get the job done.
The Danger: Busty Boy (7/2)
If you are looking for an alternative or an Exacta partner, look no further than the D.F. Bourke runner.
The Case:
Trainer Form: The yard is absolutely flying with a 50% strike rate (4 wins from 8 runs) in the last 30 days. You ignore stables in this kind of form at your peril.
Consistency: His form reads P-6-2-2-2-2-3. He is a standing dish for the places.
The Negative: He finds winning hard (1 win in 19 chase starts). He is likely to find one too good again, but he won’t be far away.
The ‘Course Specialist’ Angle: Cuban Court (7/1)
For those seeking value, Cuban Court is the swing. He was poor last time out at Taunton, but he is a Course & Distance winner (won here in December). The return to Doncaster (Left Handed) suits him perfectly. If you can forgive the last run, he’s the only other runner with winning potential.
Summary
Win: Gentleman Bill
Forecast: Gentleman Bill to beat Busty Boy