Date: Wednesday 4th Feb 2026
Race: Try Unibet’s New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Class 5)
Verdict: Must Believe (13/2)
This race is a textbook “Man vs Machine” puzzle. The data says two horses are streets ahead of the rest, but the draw gods have stuck them both in the car park.
Here is the breakdown.
The Value Play: Must Believe (13/2)
If you trust the ratings, this is the bet of the race.
Top Rated: He tops the HorseRaceBase figures with a score of 290.2.
Proven: He is a Course & Distance winner who holds a perfect 3-0 Head-to-Head record against the rivals he faces today.
The Edge: Mason Paetel’s 5lb claim is massive here, effectively cancelling out the weight difference with the favourite.
The Snag: Stall 12. It is a terrible draw, but at 13/2, the price compensates for the risk. He has the class to overcome it.
The Favourite: Dust Cover (5/2)
The obvious danger. He is progressive, won well at Southwell last time, and is the only other horse with a rating (288.5) anywhere near the selection.
The Problem: He is drawn in Stall 13—widest of all. At 5/2, you are taking a short price about a horse who needs a lot of luck in running to slot in from out there. He is the likely winner if he gets a clear run, but the value just isn’t there.
The Smart Alternative: Something (5/1)
If the two big guns get trapped out wide, this is the horse to pick up the pieces.
Class Drop: He drops from a Class 3 (0-95) straight into a Class 5 (0-70). That is a massive easing of grade.
The Draw: While the favourites are scrapping in the car park, he will be cruising from Stall 2. If you want a tactical play, he is the one.
The Solid Each-Way: Fiddlers Green (7/1)
You know what you get with him. His form figures read 7215322. He carries a featherweight (8-13) and rarely runs a bad race. He won’t be far away.
Final Call
The data isolates Must Believe and Dust Cover as the superior animals. Given the price difference, Must Believe is the clear value play to overcome the wide draw.
Win: Must Believe
Saver: Something (in case the wide draw kills the top two)