Date: Thursday, 5th Feb 2026
Race: Class 6 Handicap, 1m
Surface: Tapeta (Standard)
Class 6 handicaps at Southwell are often viewed as a lottery, but the data for today’s 3.50 paints a surprisingly clear picture. In a field cluttered with maidens and non-stayers, we are looking for proven winners who handle the unique, deeper test of the Southwell mile.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.
The Selection: Roaring Ralph (4/1)
This 6-year-old is the most solid proposition in the field. Unlike many of his rivals, he knows how to win (4 career victories vs. a field average of 1 or 0).
His run 16 days ago was the key pointer: a strong 2nd of 12 over this Course & Distance. He proved he handles the surface and the trip perfectly.
Crucially, he reverses form with Moyowasi. While Moyowasi beat him over 7f last month, Ralph is now 1lb better off at the weights. More importantly, the step up to a stiff mile swings the pendulum heavily in Ralph’s favour. Moyowasi faded to 5th in his last run, suggesting 7f is his limit, while Ralph stayed on strongly over the mile.
The Danger: Amarachi (IRE) (9/2)
If Ralph falters, Amarachi is the one to pick up the pieces. She is arguably the most consistent horse here, with form figures of 1036622.
Like the selection, she comes here off a 2nd place finish over C&D just two weeks ago. She sits second on the HorseRaceBase Total Ratings (254.9) and hits the frame in 100% of her Southwell starts. She will likely be ridden prominently and will make them all gallop.
The Value Angle: Scenario (6/1)
Don’t ignore Scenario. She actually tops the HRB ratings today (256.4). Her win two starts ago at Wolverhampton was over 9.5 furlongs.
Southwell is a track that demands stamina; a mile here often feels like further. Dropping back in trip on this surface is a classic positive angle for a horse with proven stamina. If the pace is hot, she will be finishing fastest.
Ones to Swerve
Volendam (6/1): A classic ‘trap’ horse. He is 0 wins from 13 starts. While he places 46% of the time, he lacks the killer instinct to get his head in front. Back him for a place if you must, but he is poor value for the win.
Moyowasi (5/1): As mentioned, the step up to 1m at Southwell is a serious question mark. His best form is at 7f, and he could be found wanting in the final furlong.
The Verdict
It’s a two-horse war between the proven milers. Roaring Ralph gets the nod for his winning experience and favourable weight swing.
Win: Roaring Ralph
Forecast: Roaring Ralph to beat Amarachi
The “Dark Horse”: Scenario