Race: Virgin Bet Novices’ Handicap Chase (Class 4)
Time: Thursday 5th Feb, 3:00pm
Going: Good To Soft
We have a five-runner field at Doncaster this afternoon, but let’s not overcomplicate things. This is a match race, and the bookies have it between Mumfords Magic (6/5) and Kalhandrion (11/8).
On paper, it looks tight. In reality, the weights suggest there is only one winner.
The Key Angle: The Weights Swing
These two met just 36 days ago at Uttoxeter. On that day, Mumfords Magic beat Kalhandrion by a neck. It was a proper battle, but here is the clincher:
At Uttoxeter: Mumfords Magic gave away 7lbs to Kalhandrion and won.
Today: Mumfords Magic concedes just 2lbs.
Strictly on collateral form, the Dan Skelton runner is 5lbs well-in compared to their last meeting. He beat him carrying a bigger penalty; he should beat him comfortably today on these terms.
The Trainer Trends
Current stable form reinforces the selection.
Dan Skelton (Mumfords Magic): The yard is flying with a 25% strike rate (27 winners in the last 30 days).
Richard Hobson (Kalhandrion): The yard is cold, with 0 winners from their last 5 runners (30 days).
The Rest
Kadjar Des Mottes is a maiden after eight chase starts and lacks the killer instinct. Flemenstide has back-class (rated 122 in his prime, now 105) but his recent form figures of P-7 suggest the engine has gone. Halpha Soleil is simply making up the numbers.
The Verdict
Kalhandrion has course form (2nd here 13 days ago), but he faces an impossible task at the weights if Mumfords Magic runs to his mark. We are getting better than evens on a horse that has already beaten his main rival while giving away more weight.
Selection: MUMFORDS MAGIC @ 6/5