Class 6 Handicap | 6f | Tapeta
We head to the north east for the 5.00 at Newcastle, a straight six-furlong sprint that boils down to a classic case of youth versus experience. The data points firmly in one direction, but there’s a massive historical angle lurking down the card that value hunters shouldn’t miss.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.
The Win: Teardrops (2/1)
This 4-year-old is the only progressive horse in a field of exposed veterans. His profile screams winner:
Course Specialist: He thrives on the Newcastle straight mile. His record over this specific course and distance is 3 wins from 6 starts (50%).
Form in the Book: While others are struggling for consistency, his recent form reads 3-1-1-5-1-2. He rarely runs a bad race.
The Beating: He put 3.5 lengths on rival Penny Mountain just three weeks ago. There is no reason that form should reverse today.
Ratings: He tops the HRB ratings significantly (287.1), sitting nearly 40 points clear of the field.
He is the rightful favourite and the most likely winner.
The Each-Way Value: Asadjumeirah (15/2)
If you want a price, this is where you look. This 8-year-old veteran is a standing dish at Gosforth Park, but one stat stands out above the rest:
He won this exact race last year.
On February 4th, 2025, Asadjumeirah won this contest off a mark of 50. Today, he lines up off 53—a very dangerous mark for a horse once rated 86. He showed he’s coming to the boil with a solid 3rd place here a fortnight ago. The stable knows exactly what they are doing targeting this race again. At 15/2, he is a massive price for a defending champion.
The Swerve: Laurens Dream (4/1)
She looks like the classic “trap” horse. Her form figures of 2-2-2 look pretty, but she has a bad habit of finding one too good.
Trip Trouble: Her recent placings were over 7f. Dropping back to a sharp 6f against a specialist like Teardrops is a big ask.
Course Blindspot: She is 0 wins from 5 attempts at this track.
Verdict: She is a consistent placer, but at 4/1, she offers zero value for the win. Let someone else back her.
The Bottom Line
Don’t overthink this one. TEARDROPS is the form horse and should have too much tactical speed for the older legs in the field.
If you’re playing the forecast or looking for an each-way swing, ASADJUMEIRAH is the one to be on. He loves this date, loves this track, and is handicapped to go close.
Bet: Teardrops to Win
Saver: Asadjumeirah (Each Way)