Date: Wednesday, 4th Feb 2026
Race: Midnite: Built For 2026 Not 2006 Handicap (Class 4)
Selection: CASTAN (4/1)
The 7:00 at Gosforth Park is a tricky 5f sprint, but the data cuts through the noise. We have a classic setup: a short-priced favourite with no course experience taking on hardened track specialists.
Here is the straightforward case for taking on the market leader.
The Selection: CASTAN (4/1)
This race will be won by course form. Castan is a four-time winner over this Course and Distance (CD). You cannot buy that kind of experience at Newcastle, where the stiff finish catches out many speedy types.
The Form: He posted a massive signal of intent 29 days ago at Southwell, finishing 2nd of 10. That was a return to form.
The Ratings: He is the second top-rated horse on the HorseRaceBase figures (284.1), sitting just behind Arnhem.
The Weight: He runs off a very dangerous mark of 75 today. Combined with his track knowledge, he is the value play of the race.
The Danger: ARNHEM (9/2)
The 10-year-old veteran is the top-rated horse in the field (286.8). He went down by a head here just 13 days ago. He is clearly in excellent nick, but my concern is the weight swing; he looks to be carrying significantly more lead than he did in that near-miss. He is the main threat, but Castan has the younger legs and the better weight profile.
The Swerve: MISSION COMMAND (3/1 Fav)
The bookies have Mission Command as the favourite, but I’m swerving him.
No Course Form: He has never run at Newcastle.
The Gamble: Taking 3/1 on a horse making their Tapeta debut against seasoned specialists like Castan and Monks Dream is a bad long-term strategy. Let him beat us.
The Verdict
Forget the unexposed favourite. Back the horse who knows exactly where the winning post is.
Win Bet: CASTAN @ 4/1
Saver: Exacta (Forecast) 5-1 (Castan to beat Arnhem).