Date: Wednesday, 4th Feb 2026
Race: Class 6 Classified Stakes (1m)
Let’s not dress this up—it’s a Wednesday night Classified Stakes. The quality is low, the runners are exposed, and they are all carrying 9st 9lb. In these races, the “system” bet is usually just to back the highest-rated horse, as they are effectively running off a favourable mark at level weights.
Today, that system points to That Lucas Fella (OR 49). The market has him as the 100/30 favourite.
We are taking him on. Here is why.
The Problem with the Favourite
On paper, That Lucas Fella looks the part. His form figures read 22 in his last two starts over this course and distance. He is knocking on the door.
But look closer at the data:
The Maiden Tag: He has had 16 cracks at it and won zero. Backing a maiden at short odds in a tight finish is a quick way to the poorhouse. He lacks the killer instinct.
The Cold Yard: His trainer, Iain Jardine, is having a nightmare run. The yard is 0 wins from 42 runs in the last 30 days. When a stable is that cold, you do not want to be taking 3/1 about their runners.
The Bet: SIR MAXI (13/2)
If we are opposing a horse who doesn’t know how to win, we want to be on one that does.
Sir Maxi is the answer.
Proven Winner: He has 8 career wins to his name. He knows where the winning post is.
Trainer Form: Unlike the favourite’s yard, Sam England’s team is firing. They are operating at a 17% strike rate (5 wins in the last month).
The Form Line: Eleven days ago, Sir Maxi finished 4th behind That Lucas Fella. The margin was less than a length (0.85L). Today, you are getting nearly double the price for a horse that finished on the favourite’s heels, has a far better win record, and comes from a stable in much better form.
The Verdict
This race is a trap for those just looking at Official Ratings. The favourite is a maiden from a cold stable. The value lies with the hardened veteran who is fit, ready, and overpriced.
Recommendation:
Win: SIR MAXI