4th February 2026
Let’s not beat about the bush. Class 6 handicaps at Newcastle on a Wednesday evening are typically the sort of races where you keep your powder dry. They are often messy, low-quality affairs where a pin is as useful as a form book.
But looking at the numbers for the 6.00, we have a rare exception. The data hasn’t just suggested a winner; it’s screaming one.
Here is the no-nonsense verdict for tonight’s action.
The Nap: Bibendum (1)
Current Price: 2/1
Sometimes the obvious answer is the right one. In a race of this grade, you are looking for consistency and ability relative to the opposition. Bibendum has both in spades.
** The Ratings Gap:** On my ratings (HRB), he sits on a total of 246.4. The next best horse is Spun To Gold on 223.8. In the context of a basement-level handicap, a 22-point superiority is massive. He is effectively running in a different race to the others.
Course Form: He won here four starts ago and has run credibly since. He handles the Tapeta, he handles the trip.
The Opposition: He faces a field largely comprised of horses out of form or declining. He is the solid, reliable metric in a race of variables.
The Value Play: Yaahobby (8)
Current Price: 12/1
If you want a bigger price to tackle the favourite, look no further than the bottom of the card. Ignore the ugly recent form figures (3759427); there is a specific angle here that makes him a player.
The Brittain Factor: Trainer Antony Brittain targets this track aggressively (22% strike rate recently) and, crucially, he won this exact race last year. He knows exactly what is required to land this prize.
Hidden Form: Two starts ago, Yaahobby finished 2nd over this course and distance. He is a veteran of 36 starts at Newcastle. If he runs to that level again—which the stable’s history suggests he might—12/1 is a generous Each Way shout (even with only two places).
The Swerve: Rajstar (4)
Current Price: 11/4
The market has this wrong. Rajstar is priced as the second favourite, seemingly because punters expect the drop from 1m to 6f to work miracles.
The reality? He was beaten 32 lengths last time out. Before that, 16 lengths. Backing a horse at 11/4 who has shown zero competitive form recently is the quickest way to the poorhouse. Let him beat you.
The Verdict
Keep it simple. Bibendum has the class edge and the ratings to back it up. For those playing the forecast, a straight line of Bibendum to beat Yaahobby covers the class angle and the trainer stats angle perfectly.
Win: Bibendum
Next Best: Yaahobby