Race: Gin And Dubonnet Lady Protectress Mares Chase (Listed)
Date: Thursday 5th Feb 2026
Verdict: Paggane (Win) / Straight Forecast with Jasmine Bliss
There is no point overcomplicating the 2.00 at Huntingdon tomorrow. We have a Listed contest where the conditions of the race have gifted the favourite, Paggane, an unassailable advantage.
The Maths Don’t Lie
In a handicap, the handicapper would force Paggane (Official Rating 148) to concede nearly a stone and a half to her nearest market rival. Under tomorrow’s Listed conditions, she gives away just 4lbs.
That leaves her effectively 15lbs “well-in” at the weights compared to the next highest-rated mare, All The Glory (OR 129), and 18lbs ahead of Jasmine Bliss (OR 126).
Unless she falls or the Faye Bramley yard is battling a virus (1 win in the last 30 days is the only minor red flag), this is a penalty kick. At 4/11, she isn’t a working man’s price, but she is the banker of the day.
Finding the Value: The Forecast
Since the win market is dead, the value lies in predicting who chases her home.
Jasmine Bliss is the clear pick for second place. While All The Glory has the slightly higher rating, Jasmine Bliss has the momentum.
Trainer Form: Harry Derham is operating at a frightening 41% strike rate at Huntingdon.
Current Form: She is a 7yo with a 44% career win rate, suggesting she is still on the upgrade, whereas her rivals look fully exposed.
Shakeyatailfeather (20/1) is the wildcard. Dan Skelton targets this specific race (winner in 2018 and 2020), but her recent form figures (1135158) suggest she has gone completely off the boil. She might grab third, but she isn’t reliable enough to back.
The Bottom Line
Don’t overthink it. The favourite is a Championship player in a League One fixture.
The Banker: Paggane to win.
The Bet: Straight Forecast (Exacta): 1. Paggane to beat 3. Jasmine Bliss.