Date: Wednesday 4th Feb 2026
Race: Watch RacingTV Handicap Hurdle (Class 5)
Ground: Soft
If you are looking for a complex puzzle to solve, the 4.07 at Ludlow isn’t it. Sometimes the data screams the answer, and today, that answer is Following Chapter.
This is a compressed handicap on soft ground, and looking at the internal ratings, there is a gulf in class disguised as a competitive race.
The Banker: Following Chapter (8/11)
You rarely see a horse top the Total Ratings by such a massive margin. He sits on a score of 292.1, whilst his nearest rival, Shuil Ceoil, is back on 256.3. In Class 5 company, that gap is significant.
He is lightly raced (just five starts), won decisively at Warwick last time out, and crucially, he handles soft ground. He is on the upgrade; the others are largely exposed. Don’t look for problems that aren’t there—he is the clear winner.
The Forecast Link: Shuil Ceoil (5/1)
If Following Chapter is the win, Shuil Ceoil is the anchor for your Exacta. He is the definition of solid: 26 runs, consistent ratings, and a good second at Exeter last month. He lacks the favourite’s ceiling, but he’s far more reliable than the rest of this field.
The Value Angle: Moorland Rambler (12/1)
Here is where the handicap book gets interesting.
Last month at Exeter, Moorland Rambler finished 3rd, just over two lengths behind Shuil Ceoil. That day, he was giving Shuil Ceoil 5lbs.
Today, thanks to the handicapper, he is only giving 1lb.
That is a 4lb weight swing in his favour for a 2.25-length beating. Mathematically, that puts him right on top of Shuil Ceoil. At 12/1, he is the smart each-way play or the one to spoil the forecast.
The Trap: Unleash The Beast (100/30)
The market has him as the second favourite, likely due to the Fergal O’Brien connection. Ignore the hype. His recent form figures (7th, 7th) are uninspiring, and on the ratings, he is miles off the top two. He is priced on reputation, not current performance.
The Verdict
Win: Following Chapter (The confident pick).
The Smart Forecast: Following Chapter to beat Shuil Ceoil.
The Value Swing: Moorland Rambler (12/1) to hit the frame.