Date: Wednesday 4th Feb 2026
Race: 4.23 Newcastle (Class 6, 3yo Handicap, 1m2f)
If you look at one race at Gosforth Park today, make it the 4.23. It’s a low-grade Class 6 handicap, but it features a clash between rock-solid course form and a fascinating “plot” horse that simply shouldn’t be in this grade.
Here is the no-nonsense verdict.
The Selection: SAXOPHONIC (7/2)
The Angle: The Handicap Blot
You don’t often see a horse by Dubawi out of a Galileo mare running in a Class 6 handicap off a mark of 59. That breeding suggests a Group horse, yet Saxophonic has shown nothing in three maiden runs over 7f–8.5f (form figures 8-8-0).
Ignore those runs. They were educational. Today, he steps up to 1m 2f—the trip he was bred for—and makes his handicap debut. K.R. Burke is operating at a 24% strike rate, and this looks like a classic strategic placement. If he has inherited even 10% of his parents’ ability, he is thrown in here. He is the clear value play against exposed rivals.
The Danger: TRUST NO ONE (5/2)
The Angle: The “Well-In” Runner
If you want the “safe” option, this is it. Trust No One won over this exact course and distance 26 days ago, beating Onyeisi by half a length.
Here is the key math: He has gone up in the weights, BUT rider Taryn Langley claims a valuable 5lb today. That means he is effectively running off a net mark of 8st 8lb—exactly the same weight he carried when winning last time. He handles the Tapeta, he stays the trip, and he is treated to win again.
The Swinger: ONYEISI (9/2)
The Angle: The Bridesmaid
Onyeisi tops the HRB ratings and speed figures, but he finds winning difficult (1 win in 9). He has finished 2nd in his last three starts. He meets Trust No One on slightly better terms (2lb pull) for that recent defeat, which brings them close together, but he lacks a killer turn of foot. He is a solid place material, but likely vulnerable to an improver.
The Verdict
SAXOPHONIC – The breeding says he’s better than this. The step up in trip is the key.
TRUST NO ONE – The solid option. Well-treated thanks to the jockey claim.
ONYEIS – Consistent, but likely to find one too good again.
Advice: Back Saxophonic to prove his class, with a Reverse Forecast (Exacta) including Trust No One to cover the solid form line.