Wednesday 4th Feb 2026
Punchestown in February on Soft-to-Heavy ground is not a place for the faint-hearted. It is a war of attrition. The 1.03 Mares Handicap Chase over nearly three miles will be decided by stamina and, crucially, the weights.
When the ground is this deep, carrying 11st 12lb is a monumental anchor. Carrying 10st 6lb is a gift. That is the deciding factor today.
The Selection: Sophia Rose (11/4)
Gavin Cromwell won this specific race last year with Theonewedreamof, and he has clearly laid Sophia Rose out for a repeat bid.
She looks the best handicapped horse in the field for three reasons:
The Weight Disparity: She receives a massive 20lbs from the class act Nine Graces and 19lbs from Gaoth Chuil. In a bog at Punchestown, that weight difference is worth lengths at the finish line.
The Trip: Her recent form is deceptive. She finished 4th at Limerick last month but was staying on over 2m 1½f. That trip was far too sharp. Stepping up to 2m 6f today is exactly what she has been crying out for.
The Data: Despite her price, her Speed Rating (68.3) is actually superior to the favourite. She has the engine; she just needed the right distance.
The Danger: Crecora Hills (13/8)
You can never dismiss a Robert Tyner runner in a handicap chase, especially with Mark Walsh booked. Crecora Hills tops the ratings for a reason—she won at Naas and ran a solid third here last time. She is the “safe” pair of hands.
However, at 13/8, the value has gone. She has to concede 7lbs to the selection, and in these conditions, I’d rather be with the lighter mare at the bigger price.
The Verdict
Nine Graces is the classiest mare in the race but has been handicapped out of it by the conditions. Crecora Hills is the solid benchmark.
But the smart money is on the plot. Sophia Rose is unexposed at this trip, carries a featherweight, and represents a stable that knows exactly how to win this race.
Win: Sophia Rose