Bet 20 Get 20 With Unibet Handicap (Class 3) | 1m
This is a proper puzzle for a Wednesday afternoon. We have a field of ten facing the Kempton mile on “Standard To Slow” ground. At this trip on this track, the draw is king; you want to be low, and you want to be handy. If you are caught wide or outpaced early here, it’s usually game over before the turn.
The Favorite: The Lost King (13/8)
The market has this right. The Lost King is the quintessential improver. The Balding/Murphy axis is lethal here, and this 4yo son of Kingman looks ready for the step up to a mile. His win over 7f here last month was gritty, beating a seasoned yardstick in Popmaster.
Yes, the handicapper has slapped him with a 5lb rise, but he is unexposed. You are betting on his potential to rate much higher than his current mark, and visually, he looks like a horse with plenty more under the bonnet.
The Danger: High On Hope (7/2)
If you like a “map horse,” this is it. Drawn in Stall 1, carrying a featherweight 8-10, and arriving on a hat-trick.
The step up from Class 4 to Class 3 is a jump, but the mechanics of the race are entirely in his favour. He has the perfect launchpad to grab the rail and dictate the pace. On “Standard to Slow” going, giving weight to a horse in the box seat is a nightmare task for the rest of the field.
The Value Angle: Popmaster (15/2)
This is where the market looks wrong. Popmaster finished a neck second to The Lost King last time out. Today, he meets the favourite 1lb better off, yet the price difference is massive (13/8 vs 15/2).
There is no mathematical logic for that discrepancy. While The Lost King has the “potential,” Popmaster has the concrete form in the book. He is a course regular who runs his race every time. If the favourite fluffs his lines or gets trapped in traffic, Popmaster is the one to pick up the pieces.
The Fade: Sovereign Sea (5/1)
I’m taking a stand against Sovereign Sea. He has the class (highest rated), but dropping back to a sharp mile from 10f/12f is a major risk. Combined with a wide draw (Stall 9), he is likely to get outpaced early and find himself too far back when the sprint begins.
Final Verdict
The race sets up as a tactical battle between the potential of the favourite and the positional advantage of the lightweight. However, for a bet, you have to play the numbers.
The Winner: THE LOST KING — The most likely winner. The step up to a mile should unlock the improvement needed to defy the penalty.
The Threat: HIGH ON HOPE — Will make use of Stall 1 to lead or sit handy. He will be very hard to pass late on with no weight on his back.
The Value Play: POPMASTER (Each Way) — The price gap between him and the favourite is simply too big to ignore.
Suggested Wager:
Win: The Lost King
Saver (E/W): Popmaster