The Race: Hook Polo Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 4)
The Going: Good To Soft
We head to Huntingdon for a Class 4 handicap where the market looks to have this right between two main protagonists: a proven last-time-out winner and a very interesting handicap debutant.
The Selection: Lunar Orbit (3/1)
The data speaks loudly here. Lunar Orbit tops the HorseRaceBase ratings with a massive 298.9, sitting 10 points clear of the field.
He is the only horse in the line-up arriving on the back of a win, having scored nicely at Market Rasen 63 days ago. As a 4-year-old, he gets a handy weight allowance, carrying just 11-0. When you compare that to the top weight Escortkheops (lugging 12-1 while being 0-from-8 over timber), the advantage is stark. The Greatrex yard isn’t firing on all cylinders (7% recently), but this horse looks well-handicapped off 108 and conditions are spot on.
The Danger: Bushstreet Bowman (4/1)
If you only look at the form figures (8F07), you’d scroll past. Don’t.
This is a classic plot job. He went off at 150/1 in a Class 3 at Newbury last time, yet is forecast at 4/1 here. Why? He’s making his handicap debut off a lowly mark of 99, and the booking of Ben Jones is significant. Jones is riding out of his skin with a 32% strike rate in the last 30 days (19 wins from 60 rides). The market contraction suggests connections expect a massive run.
The Solid Each-Way: Eastern Shores (5/1)
Fergal O’Brien and Jonathan Burke are both operating at an 18% strike rate this month. This mare is consistent (form 346733) and has course form. She lacks the potential of the front two but will be thereabouts to pick up the pieces if they fluff their lines.
Verdict
LUNAR ORBIT is the rightful favourite. He has the winning form in the book and a favourable weight. However, I’ll be having a saver on BUSHSTREET BOWMAN; you simply don’t ignore a Ben Jones ride when the money comes for a handicap debutant.
Win: #7 Lunar Orbit
Forecast: 7 & 5