Date: Wednesday 4th Feb 2026
Race: 4.15 Kempton (Class 6 Handicap, 6f)
If you strictly follow the form book figures, you’ll likely land on Magna. Her recent numbers read 112, she’s in career-best form, and she only narrowly missed out on a hat-trick over this course and distance 16 days ago.
Ignore that instinct.
Today’s race isn’t about ability; it’s about geography. Specifically, the brutal geography of the Kempton 6f start.
The “Car Park” Problem
In that key reference race 16 days ago, Magna had the luxury of Stall 2. She used it to sit handy and nearly win. Today, she has been handed Stall 11 of 11.
Wide draws over the Kempton sprint trip are a coffin box for horses rated 55. To win, she either has to burn way too much petrol crossing over or drop out last and hope for a suicidal pace upfront. At 5/1, she is a classic “lay” or a fade.
The Selection: Respectable Jack (3/1)
While Magna suffers, Respectable Jack has hit the jackpot.
In that same race 16 days ago, he finished 3rd—less than a length behind the winner—breaking from Stall 4. Today, he moves into Stall 2.
The logic is simple:
The Swing: He meets Magna and the winner (Dr Ali) on virtually identical weight terms.
The Position: From Stall 2, Luke Morris can secure the rail immediately without spending a penny of energy.
The Consistency: He is knocking on the door (2nd, 3rd in last two runs).
He is a maiden (0-11), which is usually a red flag, but in a field of this quality, the tactical advantage is too big to ignore. He essentially swaps places with Magna, and that should be enough to reverse the form.
The Dangers
Initial Blue (11/4): The biggest threat. Drawn in Stall 3 (right next to our selection) and has the significant booking of Rossa Ryan. He will be right there in the mix, but his price is skinny enough.
Porfin (11/2): The 110-race veteran. You know exactly what you get—he will run his race. A solid Each-Way usage if you want to play it safe, but he lacks the potential upside of the unexposed 4-year-olds.
The Bottom Line
Don’t overcomplicate it. The draw gods have handed the advantage to the maiden.
Win: Respectable Jack
Next Best: Initial Blue