Date: Wednesday 4th February 2026
Race: 3.58 Punchestown – ThatPrizeGuy.co.uk Mares Handicap Hurdle
Conditions: 2m 7f | Soft to Heavy
Racing on a Wednesday in February often throws up trappy, low-grade affairs, but today’s 3.58 at Punchestown has served up a mathematical open goal.
We have a field of ten mares facing nearly three miles in Soft to Heavy ground. It’s going to be a slog. You need stamina, you need fitness, and most importantly, you need to be ahead of the handicapper.
The Selection: Pebble Bleu (5/2)
Ignore the penalty. Ignore the “bounce” theory. The case for Pebble Bleu is purely undeniable maths.
Six days ago, she bolted up at Thurles on Heavy ground off a mark of 94. The handicapper has reacted violently to that performance, raising her new official rating to 109.
However, because the weights for today’s race were framed before that reassessment, she escapes the full burden of that hike. She carries a mandatory penalty, yes, but relative to the field, she is effectively running off a mark of roughly 101.
The Maths:
Slotty Dotty (Top Weight): Rated 110, carries 11st 12lb.
Pebble Bleu: Rated 109 (future), carries 11st 3lb.
In a fair handicap, the difference between a 110 and 109 rated horse should be 1lb. Today, Pebble Bleu is receiving 9lbs from the top weight.
Translation: She is 8lbs well-in. In a race of this grade, that is an enormous advantage. She is fit, she loves the mud, and she is technically thrown in at the weights.
The Danger: Watching The Clock (3/1)
If the favourite does fluff her lines, this is the one to pick up the pieces. Representing the JP McManus and Padraig Roche axis, she has been staying on well in shorter races (2m4f). The step up to 2m7f looks a deliberate ploy to unlock further improvement. She is solid and consistent, but she lacks the stone-cold handicap advantage of the selection.
The Trap: Lucky Viv
You will hear pundits mentioning that Lucky Viv won this exact race last year. That is true. It is also true that she was beaten 105 lengths last time out and pulled up the time before. Sentiment loses you money in this game. She is completely out of form and best watched.
The Verdict
Don’t overcomplicate it. PEBBLE BLEU is the form horse, the best-handicapped horse, and the clear winner on paper.
Win Selection: Pebble Bleu