Date: Thursday, 5th Feb 2026
We have a six-runner Mares Handicap Hurdle to close the card at Doncaster today. On paper, it looks tricky, but when you strip away the noise and look at the profiles, the winner is staring us in the face.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.
The One To Beat: Scavengers Reign (6/4)
This is the only horse in the race on a genuine upward curve. She finally put it all together at Wetherby on Boxing Day, winning a big-field maiden with authority. She traveled well, jumped cleanly, and found plenty when asked.
An opening mark of 108 looks generous for a last-time-out winner from the James Owen yard, especially with Alex Chadwick taking a further 3lbs off. She is young, confident, and race-fit. In a race full of “ifs and buts,” she is the solid entity.
The Value Play: Lets Go To Vegas (6/1)
If you want to take on the favourite, this is your angle. Ignore her last run at Windsor.
The Context: She defied a massive 665-day layoff to win at Haydock in December.
The Bounce: It is classic racing text-book for a horse to run flat (“bounce”) in their second run after a huge absence. That explains the poor showing at Windsor.
Today: Now on her third run back, she should be at peak fitness. She is the class act of the field (Top Weight/Highest OR), and 6/1 is a lovely price for a mare who has proven she can win fresh.
The Lay: Pure Seduction (3/1)
I’m tossing this one. Yes, Fergal O’Brien is a master at readying them, but taking 3/1 about a horse who hasn’t seen a racetrack in 533 days is bad math. She might be special, but she has to concede fitness to a sharp, in-form rival like Scavengers Reign. Let someone else take the risk.
The Placepot Banker: October Hill (4/1)
She doesn’t win often (0 wins in 7 hurdle starts), but she hits the frame constantly (71% place rate). With Rian Corcoran’s 7lb claim, she is effectively carrying just 10st 13lb. She will race handy, stay out of trouble, and likely finish 2nd or 3rd. A safe Each-Way bet, but lacks the killer instinct for the win.
The Final Verdict
WIN: Scavengers Reign – The progressive profile stands out a mile.
FORECAST: Scavengers Reign to beat Lets Go To Vegas.