Date: Thursday, 5th Feb 2026
Race: 4.25 Southwell (Class 6 Classified Stakes)
Let’s not beat around the bush. This is a Class 6 basement battle, and usually, these are races to swerve. However, the declaration sheets have thrown up a structural advantage for one horse that makes this a betting proposition.
Here is the data-led verdict for the 4.25.
The Selection: Up The Monk (11/4)
On paper, Up The Monk carries a 10-0 burden, penalised for his win at Chelmsford seven days ago. In a Classified Stakes where everyone else carries 9-9, that looks steep.
Here is the angle: Mason Paetel is booked to ride and takes off a vital 5lbs.
This brings Up The Monk’s racing weight back down to 9-9, effectively nullifying his penalty. He is the only horse in this field arriving on the back of a win, yet he meets a field of exposed, out-of-form rivals on level terms.
The HorseRaceBase (HRB) numbers back this up:
Total Rating: 258.3 (Clear top rated)
Last Run Rating: 73.6 (The next best is 57.5)
Speed Figure: 55.7 (Top speed in the field)
He is strictly the form horse, he has the speed to cope with the drop to 6f, and the claim makes him a standout.
The Danger: Autumn Angel (9/2)
If the favourite fluffs his lines, Autumn Angel is the only credible safety net. In a race filled with horses that “weakened” or “faded” (see Beneficiary and Trouble In Chicago), she finishes her races.
Her recent form figures (3rd, 4th, 2nd) are boringly reliable. She led after two furlongs last time out over 7f, so she has the tactical pace to sit handy here. She is the forecast pick, but she lacks the winning spark of the selection.
The Pace Map
Superior Council is the guaranteed pace angle. He has “Led at start” in 7 of his last 10 runs. He will blast out from stall 5 and cut out the running.
However, his run comments are littered with “headed inside final furlong” and “no extra”. He sets the race up perfectly for a closer. Up The Monk, who “stayed on strongly” last week, will be the one picking him off in the final furlong.
The Verdict
Don’t overcomplicate it. We have a last-start winner effectively running without a penalty against a field of declining 7-year-olds.
Win: Up The Monk
Forecast: Up The Monk to beat Autumn Angel