Newcastle is the place to be this Friday evening as the ITV4 cameras head to Gosforth Park for a competitive nine-race card. The opener at 4:30, the Friday Night Live With SBK Handicap, is a cracker of a puzzle featuring several last-time-out winners and unexposed three-year-olds.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown of where the smart money should be going.
The Leading Lady: Maria Da Silva (11/4)
If you’re looking for the horse with the most “under the bonnet,” it’s Maria Da Silva. Andrew Balding’s filly broke her maiden over seven furlongs here last month, and the visual impression was better than the winning margin suggests. She was noted as “winning going away,” which is exactly what you want to see when a horse is stepping up to a mile for the first time.
The Edge:
The Stats: Balding and jockey Jason Watson are operating at a clinical 31% strike rate at this track.
The Mark: An opening handicap rating of 67 looks like a gift. She was good enough to debut in a £150k sales race; she shouldn’t be dwelling in Class 5 company for long.
The Local Threat: Elizabetty (4/1)
Brian Ellison is the master of Newcastle, and Elizabetty comes here in peak form after a dominant 3.5-length victory over 7f just over a fortnight ago. She’s tough, knows the surface, and is a half-sister to the yard’s former star The Mackem Bullet.
The Catch: She’s slightly more “exposed” than Maria Da Silva. While she’s clearly progressive, the handicapper has a firmer grip on her than the selection.
The “Wildcards”
Pints In Peace (7/2): An intriguing Irish raider from the Daniel McLoughlin yard. He failed to fire over a sprint trip last time, but his previous Dundalk form over 1m is rock solid. If he travels well, he could be the fly in the ointment.
Sailor Batt (4/1): Still a maiden after seven starts, but the booking of Tom Marquand is a massive statement of intent from the Barron yard. He’s consistent and has been knocking on the door, but he may just find one of the fillies too progressive.
Hunterian (12/1): Charlie Johnston’s runner is bred for middle distances and could attempt to steal this from the front. If Jason Hart can dictate a slow tempo, he might hang on for a place.
Tactical Verdict
Newcastle’s straight mile is a notorious stamina test. While Hunterian and Elizabetty will likely dispute the early lead, the uphill finish usually favours those coming from off the pace.
Maria Da Silva has the pedigree, the track form, and the statistical backing of a stable that rarely misses when they send a live one North. She’s the banker of the race.
Selection: Maria Da Silva (To win)
Next Best: Elizabetty