Thurles in February is rarely a place for the faint-hearted, and today’s 3.27 Rated Novice Hurdle is no exception. We’ve got a small but tactical six-runner field facing 2m 4½f on ground described as Soft.
In a race where weights range from 11-1 to 12-0, the math often beats the “eye test.” Here is the no-nonsense breakdown of where the smart money is going.
The Selection: Timeless Treaty (3)
If you follow the data, Timeless Treaty is the only logical conclusion. Despite a recent string of 5s and 8s on the form card, those runs were in deep-water handicaps at Leopardstown and Navan.
The Class Drop: Moving from a 20-runner Navan handicap to a 6-runner Rated Novice is a massive ease in company.
The Weight: He carries 11-9, effectively receiving 5lbs from the top-rated horses (Murat and Welonlyhavedone).
The Rating: He sits nearly 40 points clear on the HorseRaceBase ratings. In a small field, that level of statistical superiority is hard to overlook.
The Danger: Gin Tonic (4)
Paul Nolan’s Gin Tonic is the “could be anything” horse in the race. He’s only had two runs over timber, winning a Wexford maiden and following up with a massive second in a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse.
Why he’s a threat: He’s the most progressive horse here. While the data likes the selection’s experience, the potential for Gin Tonic to find another 7-10lbs of improvement is very real.
The Value: Herons Butler (6)
Ignore Herons Butler at your peril. He is a proven course winner (1-1 at the track) and carries the featherweight of 11-1.
The Angle: Thurles is a quirky, undulating track that catches out many travellers. Herons Butler finds a leg here, and on testing ground, that stone-plus weight advantage over the top weights could see him outstay them all up the final hill.
The “Big Weight” Risk: Murat & Welonlyhavedone
Both Murat and Welonlyhavedone are tasked with carrying 12-0. Murat has been prolific (3 wins from his last 4), but he is stepping up from 2m to 2m 4½f on soft ground with a career-high weight. That is a brutal ask for any novice.
Final Verdict
1st: Timeless Treaty (3) 2nd: Gin Tonic (4) 3rd: Herons Butler (6)