Class 6 handicaps at Southwell are rarely for the faint-hearted, but the 6.00 this evening offers a rare moment of clarity in the data. With eleven runners over the 1m 4f trip, the “Midnite” Handicap (Div 1) is a puzzle where most pieces don’t fit—except for one.
The Solid Option: Night Bear (2)
If you’re looking for the most honest horse in the race, Night Bear is it. Currently heading the HRB ratings at 243.5, Tony Carroll’s nine-year-old is a model of consistency at this level.
The logic is simple: he has already put half this field to the sword. Just 14 days ago at this track, he finished a gutsy second, comfortably beating Broadstone, Abu Royal, Stoneacre, and Easter Sundae. He’s weighted to confirm that form tonight. He’s a “Gave All” type who travels into his races; with William Carson in the plate, he should have the perfect tow into the final two furlongs.
The Hype Horse: Havachoc (5)
The market will likely obsess over Havachoc following his six-length romp at Wolverhampton last month. While a 6lb penalty is manageable for a horse that won “readily,” the surface is the sticking point. Southwell’s “Standard” track is a different beast to the Tapeta at Wolves. Havachoc’s only previous visit here was a dismal ninth-place finish. At 7/2, you are paying a premium to find out if he can handle the kickback.
The Tactical Threat: Rosco Rogers (4)
For those looking to take on the front two, Rosco Rogers is the play. He’s a four-year-old with scope to improve, unlike many of the exposed veterans here. He led for a long way over course and distance 19 days ago, eventually finishing fourth. If Sean Kirrane can dictate a slightly steadier gallop from Stall 1, he could prove very difficult to peg back.
The Verdict
Night Bear is the percentage call. He’s the highest-rated, has the best course-and-distance profile, and holds superior head-to-head stats against the bulk of the field.
Selection: Night Bear (Win)
Danger: Havachoc