It’s a cold Thursday night on the Tapeta, and while most of the country is tucked up, the 20:00 at Southwell (Class 6, 7f) offers a proper puzzle for the night owls. With Hows The Guvnor and Liberty Bird pulled out, we’re left with a leaner field and a much tighter betting heat.
Here is the no-nonsense state of play.
The Heavy Hitters
King Of York (9/4) The Dixon yard knows exactly what time it is at Southwell. This gelding is the definition of “reliable”—his form is a sea of 2s and 3s. He ran a cracker just six days ago over a mile here, and the drop back to 7f looks like a deliberate move to find that elusive winning gear. He’s the speed horse, but with 16 career runner-up spots, he’s starting to develop a bit of a “bridesmaid” reputation. At 9/4, you’re paying a premium for consistency.
Landlordtothestars (13/2) If you’re a slave to the data, this is your horse. He tops the HorseRaceBase ratings by a decent margin. He’s already a C&D winner and his recent second at Wolverhampton suggests he’s in the mood. Unlike the favourite, he tends to get his nose in front when it matters. If Joe Leavy can grab the lead and dictate the fractions, he’ll be very tough to pass in the final furlong.
The Late Surger
Secret Road (11/2) Don’t let the 8yo tag fool you; he’s currently in a purple patch. His January was basically a residency in the winner’s enclosure (2-1-1-2-2). He was a bit too keen at Wolverhampton earlier this week, but if Luke Morris can get him to settle behind what should be a decent pace, his finishing kick is potent for this level.
The Verdict
In a race like this, value is everything. King Of York is clearly the one to beat on track suitability, but Landlordtothestars is overpriced at 13/2 given he is statistically the best horse in the race.
The Selection: Landlordtothestars (Each Way). He has the class to win this and the ratings to back it up.
The Forecast: Landlordtothestars to beat King Of York.