If you’re looking for a race where the form book actually makes sense, Southwell’s 17:00 handicap is about as transparent as it gets. We have a five-runner field where the pace logic is straightforward, but the betting value is where the real work begins.
The C&D Specialist: Baker Blue
Baker Blue is effectively the horse they all have to beat. He isn’t just a course winner; he’s a horse that thrives on the Southwell Tapeta. His recent second over 5f was a massive effort, clocking a high speed figure and finishing clear of the chasing pack. Back up to 6f today—his optimum trip—he is the definitive class act in the race. He carries 9-11 for a reason.
The Improver: Mr Juggles
Mick Appleby at Southwell is a cliché for a reason—the man knows how to prime one for this track. Mr Juggles looked like a new horse 14 days ago, making all to win his maiden over this C&D. However, let’s be realistic: he was soundly beaten by Baker Blue in December. To reverse that nearly 6-length deficit today, he needs to have found massive improvement in a very short window.
The Balding “Trap”: Allegrino
Keep a sharp eye on Allegrino. Andrew Balding is operating at an 18% strike rate with handicap debutants, and this filly arrives off the back of a gutsy 7f win at Lingfield.
The Angle: In small fields, the “burn up” often happens between the front-runners (Baker Blue and Mr Juggles).
The Result: If they cut each other’s throats for the lead, Allegrino—who stayed on well over 7f—will be the one to pick up the pieces in the final furlong.
Verdict: No Nonsense
Baker Blue is the most likely winner. He’s proven, he’s in form, and he’s already shown he’s faster than his main market rival. At 9/4, he’s a fair price to consolidate his course dominance.
The Forecast: 1st: Baker Blue, 2nd: Allegrino.