If you’re looking for a flashy superstar, look elsewhere. The 4.02 at Thurles is a proper 0-100 handicap hurdle for the stayers—a three-mile test on soft ground that will find out exactly who wants it. With 17 runners declared, this is a puzzle, but the data points to three clear angles.
The Leading Fancy: Empire Walk (11/2)
The “wise money” is on J Motherway’s Empire Walk. While he sits near the top of the weights, he is the only runner in the field with significant “unexposed” potential.
His last run at Naas over 2m 3f was the perfect pointer; he was outpaced early but stayed on powerfully to take second at the finish. Stepping up to nearly three miles today is a clear statement of intent. He handles the ground, he’s only five, and he hasn’t yet shown the handicapper his full hand.
The Form Choice: Kanog Bay (5/2)
You cannot ignore a horse coming off a win, and Kanog Bay did it nicely at Fairyhouse three weeks ago. He is the clear danger and sits second on the internal ratings. However, at 5/2 in a 17-runner field, he’s a skinny price for a horse tackling this extreme distance for the first time. If his stamina holds, he wins; if the final two furlongs become a bog, he’s vulnerable.
The Each-Way Shout: The Little Yank (14/1)
For those looking for a bit of value, The Little Yank is a massive price at 14/1. He is the highest-rated horse in the race (267.4) and a proven winner in the mud, having scored at Clonmel just last month. He’s an 11-year-old veteran carrying top weight, which explains the price, but he’s tough as teak and rarely runs a bad race. In a contest where half the field won’t finish, his reliability is gold.
The Tactical Verdict
Expect Rebel Cowgirl and Milanaway to ensure a true test by forcing the pace early. This setup plays perfectly into the hands of a closer like Empire Walk.
The Selection: Empire Walk (Win)
The Danger: Kanog Bay
The Value: The Little Yank (Each-way)
The Bottom Line: Follow the young legs and the staying power of Empire Walk to outlast the veterans up the Thurles straight.