Distance: 2m 5f | Going: Heavy | Runners: 5
We have a compact but fascinating Listed field at Warwick. With the ground officially described as Heavy, stamina will be at a premium. The market is dominated by Paul Nicholls’ runner, but the data suggests we need to look closely at race fitness, given the significant layoffs for some key rivals.
The Contenders
1. Jubilee Alpha (IRE) (10/11)
The Form Choice: This 7yo mare is the clear standout on paper. She boasts an Official Rating (OR) of 139, putting her 8lbs clear of her nearest rival.
Fitness: Crucially, she has run within the last 35 days (2nd at Sandown). In a race where two main rivals are returning from massive absences, her race fitness is a decisive factor.
Stats: The Nicholls yard is flying with a 38% strike rate in the last 14 days. Jubilee Alpha also holds a 40% win rate in this race code.
Verdict: She handles the trip, she’s fit, and she has the class edge. Hard to oppose.
2. Flying Fortune (IRE) (7/1)
The Wildcard: On raw talent, she is dangerous. She won four on the bounce, including a Grade 2 Novice Hurdle, before her break.
The Risk: The data highlights a massive red flag—she has been off the track for 484 days. Asking a mare to return from a 16-month layoff and win a Listed race on Heavy ground is a monumental task.
3. La Pinsonniere (FR) (4/1)
The Henderson Factor: A consistent mare (80% place rate in last 5 runs), but often finds one too good, evidenced by a string of four consecutive runner-up finishes.
The Risk: Like Flying Fortune, she lacks recent action, coming off a 296-day break. While the Henderson yard can ready them first time out, she is rated 9lbs inferior to the favourite even at her peak.
4. Hollygrove Cha Cha (IRE) (7/2)
The Mudlark: If there is an upset, it comes from here. She ran just 22 days ago, giving her a distinct fitness advantage over the returners.
Conditions: She has won on Heavy (Exeter, Jan ’25) and the Snowden/Sheehan combination has a lethal 26% strike rate over the last two years.
Negatives: She is switching back from fences after a 5th place finish at Windsor and has 10lbs to find on ratings with Jubilee Alpha.
5. Analiese (33/1)
Outclassed: Rated 115. Even in receipt of no weight allowance, she is theoretically 24lbs inferior to the favourite. Impossible to recommend.
The Verdict
The data points to a straightforward outcome. While Flying Fortune has back-class, the Heavy ground at Warwick is unforgiving for horses lacking match practice.
Jubilee Alpha ticks every box:
Class: Highest rated (139).
Fitness: Recent run 35 days ago.
Trainer Form: Nicholls operating at nearly 40% strike rate recently.
Hollygrove Cha Cha is the only viable forecast option for those looking to play the “fitness over class” angle, but she would need the favourite to underperform significantly.
Win Selection: Jubilee Alpha