Date: Saturday, 7th February 2026
Race: William Hill Each Way Extra Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
Conditions: 3m1f, Heavy Ground
We are faced with a proper stamina test at Newbury today. With the ground officially described as Heavy and a trip extending over three miles, this isn’t a race for the faint-hearted. We need a horse that stays all day and handles the mud. Looking at the history books, Dan Skelton took this race last year (2025) with Santos Blue, and he looks to hold the aces again this afternoon.
Here is the breakdown of the key contenders and where the value lies.
The Leading Contender: A Pai De Nom (13/8)
It is difficult to look past the Dan Skelton runner here, A Pai De Nom. The metrics suggest this horse is currently operating at a peak.
The Form: His form figures of 2512113 are the most consistent in the field. He comes here off the back of a solid 3rd in a Class 2 at Kempton (28 days ago), where he was beaten less than 9 lengths. Dropping into Class 3 company today is a significant easing of waters.
The Data: He tops the HRB Ratings with a massive 350.8, significantly clear of the field.
Stable Form: The Skelton yard is ticking along at a healthy 24% win rate in the last fortnight. Plus, as mentioned, they won this race last year.
Suitability: He has won on Soft recently. The step up in trip shouldn’t be an issue given how he stayed on at Kempton.
The Main Danger: Below The Radar (9/2)
If there is a spoil-sport, it is likely Paul Nicholls’ Below The Radar.
Mud Lark: His last run was a gritty 2nd of 17 at Haydock on heavy ground. That proves his ability to handle today’s attrition.
Stat Attack: Paul Nicholls has a 38% win rate with horses running under these specific conditions (Trainer 14 Day Win / Surface stats).
Weight: He carries 11-3, receiving a few pounds from the likes of Crebilly and Kyntara, which could be crucial in the final furlong.
The Others
Crebilly (13/2): A class act on his day, but he has been drastically out of form (0369568). While he has dropped to a dangerous mark (OR 127), his run at Chepstow 42 days ago (tailed off) makes him a risky proposition until he shows a spark of life.
Kyntara (15/2): Pulled up in two of his last three starts. The engine seems to be spluttering, and carrying 11-11 in this ground asks a lot of a horse out of form.
Alentejo (14/1): Pulled up on chase debut recently. Henderson’s runners can never be totally discounted, but this feels like a watching brief.
The Verdict
The data points firmly in one direction. A Pai De Nom is the clear form horse, drops in class, and represents a trainer who targets this specific race. While Below The Radar will likely ensure it’s a true test, the Skelton runner has the superior recent profile and the class edge.
Selection: A Pai De Nom
Danger: Below The Radar