Date: Saturday, 7th February 2026
Race: Read Meg Nicholls Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap (Class 5)
Distance: 1m (Standard – Polytrack)
We are down to a field of seven for this Class 5 mile handicap at Lingfield. The markets have this carved up between three runners, and frankly, the rest look to be making up the numbers. The key here is separating the recent course winner from the ratings-topper.
The Contenders
Way To Dubai (7/4)
Mick Appleby’s 7-year-old arrives on the back of a confidence-boosting win over this course and distance just seven days ago. The run comment “readily asserted and stayed on well” paints a clear picture. He handles the quick turnaround, loves the Lingfield Polytrack, and Harry Davies is in the plate. He is the rightful favourite, but his rating of 259.9 sits significantly below our top pick.
Francesi (5/2)
This is where the smart money should look. Francesi tops the HRB ratings comfortably with a score of 274.5. While he was beaten into second at Wolverhampton last time out (22 days ago), his consistency is undeniable—form figures of 2133112 read very well. The 5lb claim from Tyrese Cameron is a strategic advantage here, effectively nullifying some of the weight burden. The stats back him up too: a massive 38% win rate for the Horse/Trainer combination.
Latin (9/2)
A very dangerous floater. He rattled off three wins in a row before a respectable 4th at Wolverhampton five days ago. He’s fit, in form, and J P Owen is operating at an 18% strike rate for the last two years. However, he has to prove he can handle the Lingfield sharpness as well as the Wolves tapeta against seasoned track specialists.
Tadreeb (4/1)
The veteran of the field. If the pace collapses, he picks up the pieces. He has a 26% win rate at the track, but his recent run comments (“stayed on one pace,” “never nearer”) suggest he might lack the killer turn of foot required to beat the top two here. A solid place claim, but winning looks a stretch.
** The Outsiders**
Nordic Norm, Kingkeer, and Elouises Prince are all trading at 20/1 or bigger for a reason. Their recent form is littered with “weakened” and “no impression” comments. In a tight seven-runner field, they are hard to recommend.
The Verdict
While Way To Dubai has the recency bias in his favour with that course-and-distance win last week, the value lies with Francesi.
The ratings gap is significant (15 points clear of the favourite), and the Tony Carroll yard knows exactly how to place this horse. With the 5lb claimer aboard and a favourable stall 2, I expect Francesi to sit handy and have too much in the locker for the favourite late on.
Win Selection: Francesi (IRE) @ 5/2
Next Best: Way To Dubai (IRE)