Newcastle’s straight seven furlongs is a relentless test where weight and track position are everything. This afternoon’s puzzle centres on whether class can overcome a significant weight burden.
The Market Leaders
Goldmoyne (2) Statistically, he is the benchmark. With an HRB rating of 279.2, he sits nearly 25 points clear of this field. He is a Newcastle specialist with a 100% track place record (5-for-5). However, he is lugging 9st 9lb and has been collared late in his last two starts. The straight mile at Newcastle is a long way home when you’re carrying the grandstand.
Call Glory (9) The “handicap blot” of the race. He arrives on a hat-trick and carries just 8st 9lb. Receiving 14lb from Goldmoyne is a massive advantage at this level. His recent win at Southwell showed a horse firmly on the upgrade, and if he handles the straight course as well as the bends, he is the one they all have to beat.
The Supporting Cast
Straight A (3): The model of consistency. He holds a solid 254.3 rating and a high place strike rate. While he often finds one too good for the win, he is the most reliable each-way option in the line-up.
Bella Bisbee (1): High speed figures, but a high-risk investment. She has a persistent habit of missing the break (marked “slowly away” in 60% of recent runs). On this track, if you lose two lengths at the stalls, you’re playing for place money at best.
Flowstate (6): A previous Course and Distance winner who shouldn’t be ignored. He won going away here in December and remains competitively treated on a mark of 66.
The Verdict
Goldmoyne is undoubtedly the best horse in the race, but the handicapper has set him a brutal task. Call Glory is the value. Receiving over a stone in weight while in the form of his life is the decisive factor. He has the tactical speed to travel and the light weight to finish strongly on this stiff track.
Selection: Call Glory (9)
Main Danger: Goldmoyne (2)
Each-Way: Straight A (3)