Small fields usually mean tactical headaches, but at 4.45 Dundalk today, the data suggests the market has got it wrong. We have a four-runner sprint where the odds-on favourite looks like a classic “reputation bet” while the real value is hiding in plain sight.
The Market Leader: Valiant Force (4/6)
On paper, he’s the one to beat. With an Official Rating of 105 and a 50% strike rate at this track, it’s easy to see why he’s 4/6. However, class is permanent but form is temporary. He was beaten nearly 6 lengths last time out, and his HRB Rating (300.4) actually ranks him only third-best in this field. At these prices, he is a massive risk.
The Real Value: Little Queenie (6/1)
If you ignore the name and look at the numbers, this mare should be half her current price:
Top Rated: She leads the HorseRaceBase Total ratings at 314.4.
Hottest Stable: Paul Flynn is currently operating at a lethal 43% strike rate (3 wins from last 7).
The “Win” Factor: She is the only runner in the field coming off a victory, having won comfortably over course and distance in December.
The Supporting Cast
Kerdos (5/2) is a high-speed horse on the downgrade. His recent run comments—”no response” and “lacked pace”—are red flags for a horse at this price. City House (16/1) is outclassed here and appears to be making up the numbers.
The Verdict
The bookies are banking on Valiant Force’s back-class, but the HRB metrics point elsewhere. In a four-runner race, tactics are everything. Little Queenie is a natural front-runner in peak form from a stable that can’t stop winning.
At 6/1, she is a professional’s bet. She has the ratings to win this, and we’re getting paid nearly ten times the favourite’s price to prove it.
Selection: Little Queenie (6/1)