Date: Saturday 7th February 2026
Race: Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle
Distance: 1m 7½f | Going: Soft to Heavy
We are facing a gruelling test at Naas this afternoon. With the ground described as Soft to Heavy and the distance just shy of two miles, this isn’t about speed figures; it’s about stamina, grit, and the ability to handle the dirt.
Looking at the HorseRaceBase (HRB) data, one horse stands head and shoulders above the rest in the ratings, and the form book backs it up.
The Selection: Moudan (5/2)
The Ciaran Murphy-trained Moudan is the clear top-rated runner here with a Total Rating of 265.5, a significant margin clear of his nearest rival (Eternal Echo at 248.8).
While he has been campaigning over fences recently—winning a Novice Chase at Limerick on Soft-Heavy ground in December—his transition back to hurdles should not be an issue given his current vein of form. The run comments from that Limerick win (“stayed on well, all out”) suggest a horse with the heart required for today’s conditions.
Key Stats:
Form: 3 wins in his last 7 starts (311UF31).
Conditions: Proven on Soft-Heavy.
HRB Rank: Top rated on overall figures and holds the highest recent form figures.
Stat Attack: 40% Win Strike rate in the specific ‘Horse Hcap(non) Win’ category.
He carries 11-6, which is manageable, and arrives fit and confident. In a race full of exposed types, he looks the most progressive.
The Danger: Half A Chance (11/4)
If Moudan fluffs his lines, Half A Chance is the logical beneficiary, though he comes with a health warning. His form string (0223253) screams consistency, but he finds winning difficult (1 win in 15 career starts).
The data shows he is often “strongly pressed” or “headed close home.” He is the safe each-way play or the solid option to fill the second spot in a forecast, but I struggle to back him to win against a grinder like Moudan.
The Pace Angle: Boher Road (8/1)
Expect Boher Road to blast out from the tape. The run comments are littered with “Made all,” “Soon led,” and “Led.” On a tight track like Naas, if he gets loose on the lead, he could be dangerous. However, his recent efforts suggest he weakens when the pressure truly comes on in the final furlong, especially in this ground. He may set the race up for the closers.
Verdict
This looks like a race where form holds up. MOUDAN is officially rated to win, handles the heavy going, and knows where the winning post is. He is the nap of the race.
Win: Moudan
Forecast: Moudan to beat Half A Chance