This evening’s 6.00 at Newcastle is a Class 5 sprint handicap that essentially boils down to one question: can anything stop the Pal Joey momentum? On a surface like the Newcastle Tapeta, you need a horse that thrives on a stiff finish, and the current favourite fits that bill to a tee.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown of the key contenders.
The One to Beat: Pal Joey (15/8)
The form book doesn’t lie. Pal Joey arrives here having won over this exact Course and Distance just six days ago.
The Verdict: He is the highest-rated horse in the field by a massive 48 points.
The Edge: Trainer Ben Haslam is operating at a 30% strike rate. While carrying 10-0 is no easy feat, a sprinter in this kind of “zone” usually defies the handicapper until their run ends.
Verdict: The clear professional’s choice.
The Value Alternative: Good Earth (6/1)
If you’re looking to oppose the favourite, don’t be fooled by Good Earth’s recent 8th place finish.
Hidden Form: The run comments confirm he was “not clear run” and effectively boxed in when it mattered.
The Angle: He’s a previous C&D winner and Jason Hart is a top-tier booking for this type of race. If the gaps open tonight, he is the one most likely to spoil the party.
The Danger: Harb (9/1)
Harb is the definition of a solid All-Weather yardstick. He was a close 3rd over C&D last time out and has the services of Luke Morris—the undisputed king of riding the Newcastle straight. He rarely runs a bad race and is a must for any each-way triplets.
Three Key Stats to Know
The Track Specialist: Bonito Cavalo (14/1) has won or placed in 55% of his starts at Newcastle. His recent form is poor, but he is a completely different animal on this track.
The Starting Gate Risk: Dark Kestrel (13/2) has “Slowly Away” noted in 5 of his last 10 starts. In a 5f dash, a bad break is a death sentence.
The Yard Form: Haslam (Pal Joey) and Goldie (Bonito Cavalo) are both showing significant “14-day win” spikes in the Stat Attack data.
The Final Word
It’s hard to get away from Pal Joey. He has the best rating, the best recent C&D form, and the most in-form trainer. At 15/8, he represents solid, if unexciting, value. For those seeking a bigger price, Good Earth is the clear “forgive” horse of the race.
The Selection: Pal Joey (Win)
The Forecast: Pal Joey / Good Earth