Friday night under the lights at Newcastle features a Class 5 sprint that, on paper, looks like a proper scrap. However, once you dig into the HorseRaceBase data and recent run comments, the picture clears up significantly.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown of where the money should be going.
The One to Beat: Digital (IRE)
If you’re looking for the most likely winner, Digital is the only place to start. Currently trading around 5/1, he is the clear top-rated horse on the Timewise Master Ratings (266.2).
He isn’t just a “stats horse”; he’s a course specialist in the form of his life. His recent C&D record reads 1-2-2-1, and his win here 17 days ago was as gritty as they come. He has the early speed to “make all,” and on the stiff Newcastle 5f, that tactical edge is gold dust. Joanna Mason knows him inside out—expect him to dictate from the off.
The “Steal” in the Betting: Amerjeet
While the market is fixated on the favorites, Amerjeet (7/1) is the one the handicappers missed. His bare form figures don’t tell the full story. Just 10 days ago at Wolverhampton, he was “denied a clear run” at a vital stage. Despite the traffic, he “ran on well” once he saw daylight.
He’s a four-year-old with room for improvement compared to the battle-hardened veterans in the field. If he gets a clean run tonight, he’s a massive threat to the top-rated.
The Place Filler: Water Of Leith
You can rarely rule out Water Of Leith (6/1) in this grade. With 93 runs under his belt, he’s the definition of a “hardened campaigner.” He’s been runner-up in two of his last three starts and is consistently “nearest at the finish.” He’ll likely be outpaced early but will be doing his best work late on to grab a place.
The Verdict
The Win: Digital (IRE). He is the class act in the field and the ratings gap is too big to ignore.
The Each-Way: Amerjeet. The “unlucky” horse from last time who is due a change in fortune.
The Fade: Lions House. Far too short at 4/1 given he hasn’t won in ages and his ratings don’t justify the price.
Bottom line: Stick with the course specialist. Digital has the speed, the surface affinity, and the momentum to defy the weight rise.