Date: Saturday 7th Feb 2026
Conditions: 2m 4f, Heavy Ground, Class 2
Veterans’ chases at Warwick are rarely about flair; they are attrition battles. With Heavy ground declared and 17 fences to navigate around this sharp, left-handed track, we are looking for a horse that handles the mud, jumps rhythmically, and carries its weight well.
The market is tight, but the data points to a clear split between those well-handicapped and those facing a massive task at the weights.
The Leading Contenders
1. Le Milos (9/4) – The Defending Champion
Dan Skelton targets Warwick aggressively, and Le Milos is the standout here.
Course & Distance: He won this exact race last year (Feb 2025) on Soft ground off a mark of 139. Today he runs off 140, but here is the key: Harry Atkins claims a vital 7lbs. Effectively, he is carrying 5lbs less than his winning weight last year.
Recent Form: His run 35 days ago at Sandown (2nd of 9) was promising. The run comment notes he “ran on well,” suggesting his stamina and enthusiasm remain intact.
Suitability: He acts on the going, knows the fences, and the stable is hitting a 24% win strike rate in the last 14 days. He is the one to beat.
2. Knappers Hill (11/4) – Class vs. Weight
Paul Nicholls’ runner is the class act (Rated 145), boasting a career win rate of 55%.
The Problem: He has to lug 12-0 (top weight) through Heavy ground. While he has a 14-day trainer strike rate of 38%, conceding weight to race-fit chasers like Le Milos in these conditions is a massive ask.
The Trip: He has the speed, but does he have the grit for a heavy-ground slog at Warwick? His form figures are consistent (2312143), but he often finds one or two too good in high-pressure handicaps.
3. Guard Your Dreams (5/1) – The Wildcard
Nigel Twiston-Davies brings this 10yo back after a massive 280-day absence.
Fresh Record: The yard does well with fresh horses, and the jockey/trainer combo has a 31% strike rate over the last two years.
Risk: However, asking a horse to jump 17 fences in Heavy ground after nearly a year off is risky. He is one to watch for the future, but a risky betting proposition today.
The “Dark Horse”
Lord Baddesley (16/1)
If you are looking for an Each-Way thief, this is it.
The Jumping Factor: Run comments from November 2025 highlight a tendency to “jump left.” Warwick is a left-handed track. This natural bias becomes an asset here rather than a liability.
Weight: He carries a featherweight 10-10. In a bog, receiving 16lbs from Knappers Hill could be decisive.
Price: At 16/1, he is overpriced for a horse that will enjoy the track configuration.
Verdict
The race revolves around Le Milos. He won this last year, arrives in form, and the booking of a 7lb claimer is a strategic masterstroke by Skelton to cheat the handicapper. He ticks every box for course, distance, and ground.
Knappers Hill will likely travel best but struggle to concede the weight in the final two furlongs. Lord Baddesley is the value play for the places given his preference for going left.
Win: Le Milos (9/4)
Each Way / Value: Lord Baddesley (16/1)