If you’re looking for a Friday night flutter, the 8.00 at Newcastle—the SBK Betting Podcast Handicap—is where the real value lies. Forget the short-priced favorites elsewhere; this Class 4 over the straight seven furlongs is a proper puzzle for those who value form over hype.
Here’s the no-nonsense breakdown of who’s hot, who’s not, and where the smart money is going.
The Big Hitters
The Favorite: Maximising (11/4)
Kevin Foy’s four-year-old is the one they all have to beat. He was clinical when winning at Lingfield last month, and while he’s up in class today, he’s unexposed. The yard is firing at a 25% strike rate this month. He’s the “potential” play, but at 11/4, you aren’t getting much change for your risk.
The Class Act: The Dragon King (7/1)
Don’t let the price fool you. Clive Cox doesn’t send runners to the North East for a night out. This horse won a Class 4 at Wolverhampton in November and sits top of the HRB Ratings (299.6). Hector Crouch is on board, and they operate at a massive 27% win rate together recently. He carries 9-12, but he’s the classiest animal in the stalls.
The Course Specialist: Benacre (8/1)
If you want a horse that knows every blade of the Newcastle Tapeta, it’s Benacre. He was a narrow second here just 6 days ago. He’s fit, he’s in form, and he loves to be prominent. If Oliver Stammers grabs the rail early, he’ll be incredibly tough to peg back.
The Outsider Worth a Look
Sunriseontheboyne (25/1)
A total “stat play.” He has a 50% strike rate in this class and over this distance. He’s been off for 136 days, which explains the massive price, but if the market shows any support before the off, he’s a dangerous one to ignore.
The Verdict
Maximising is the obvious threat, but BENACRE is the value. He ran a cracker here less than a week ago, and the Johnston yard is famous for striking while the iron is hot. He has the course experience and the tactical speed to dominate from the front.
The Selection: BENACRE (8/1) – Each Way
The Danger: THE DRAGON KING (7/1)