Friday night at Dundalk offers plenty of puzzles, but the 7.15 Handicap over 1m4f is the clear highlight. It’s a classic Polytrack scenario: do you back the horse with the hot hand, or the one with the course map tattooed on its soul?
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.
The Main Players
The One to Beat: Thompson Gunner (11/4)
Cian Hughes has found the key to this 5-year-old. His win here 24 days ago over 10.5f was gritty; he was challenged late but refused to bend. The step up to 12f (1m4f) looks tailor-made for him. He sits in the “sweet spot” of the handicap at 9-7 and has the tactical speed to sit handy from Stall 6.
The Course Specialist: Satono Chevalier (100/30)
You simply cannot ignore this horse at Dundalk in February. He won this exact race in 2023 and proved he’s still a force with a cracking second-place finish just a fortnight ago. With a 38% strike rate over this track and trip, he is the definition of a “Dundalk Regular.” The only worry? He’s lugging 9-11, and giving 4lbs to a younger, improving horse like Thompson Gunner is a big ask.
The Dark Horse: Captain Hanley (9/2)
If there’s an upset, it comes from the bottom of the weights. Carrying a mere 8-12, Captain Hanley will be finishing faster than most. He is a professional place-getter (0 from 14), but in a race where the leaders might go too hard, his late rattle makes him a must-include for Forecasts and Each-Way bets.
The Verdict
It’s a two-horse race on paper. Satono Chevalier has the history, but THOMPSON GUNNER has the momentum and the weight advantage. Expect Heffernan to keep the Gunner close to the pace before kicking clear off the final bend.
Selection: Thompson Gunner (Win)
Danger: Satono Chevalier
Value: Captain Hanley (E/W)