Date: Saturday, 7th February 2026
Conditions: Class 4 Handicap Hurdle, 2m, Heavy Ground.
Warwick presents a proper stamina test today. It’s heavy going over two miles, meaning we need a horse that handles the dirt and sees out the trip strongly. The markets are leaning one way, and looking at the data, it is hard to disagree—but let’s break down why.
The Selection: Le Yacht (FR)
Trainer: Tom Lacey | Jockey: Richard Patrick
Current Odds: 5/4
This 5-year-old is the clear form choice. While he carries top weight (12-0), his profile suggests he is a cut above this Class 4 field.
The Lacey/Patrick Factor: The most compelling stat on the card is the partnership. Tom Lacey and Richard Patrick have a staggering 67% strike rate when combining over the last two years for this specific data set. When they team up, they mean business.
Ground Conditions: Crucially, he has form in the slop. His win at Doncaster (16.5f) was on Soft ground, where he stayed on strongly. His last run at Haydock (6th) was over further (19f) on decent ground; the drop back to a testing 2 miles on Heavy should play right into his strengths.
Consistency: With a win rate of 40% (2 from 5), he is unexposed and progressive compared to the exposed veterans in the field.
The Danger: Service Minimum (FR)
Trainer: Dan Skelton | Jockey: Mr T Durrell
Current Odds: 12/1
If you are looking for value against the favourite, the data points to Service Minimum.
Ratings Topper: Surprisingly, he tops the HorseRaceBase (HRB) ratings with a score of 291.2, sitting higher than the favourite.
The Skelton Factor: Dan Skelton at Warwick is always dangerous. While his recent form (0-7) is off-putting, the handicapper has given him a chance (OR 109). If he handles the heavy going better than his recent outings suggest, he is the dark horse.
The Swerve: Almuhit (IRE)
Current Odds: 100/30
I’m taking a view against the second favourite. Almuhit is a Sea The Stars gelding. While he has decent flat form and represents a stable in form, his best work has been on the Flat or sounder surfaces. A slog in the Warwick mud against a stout jumper like Le Yacht looks like a big ask for him.
Verdict
The Tom Lacey yard is efficient, and Le Yacht ticks every box for a Heavy ground 2-mile hurdle. He has the class to defy the weight and the ground conditions to outbattle the flat-bred types.
Win Selection: Le Yacht
Forecast play: Le Yacht to beat Service Minimum.