Small Field, Big Tactics: Analyzing the 3.37 SIS Handicap
Small-field handicaps at Chelmsford are rarely about raw speed; they are about track position and who handles the Polytrack “kickback” best. Sunday’s 3.37 Class 5 contest over 1m 2f presents a fascinating tactical puzzle featuring a dominant favourite and a couple of lurking dangers.
The Market Leader: Harlington (FR)
Harlington is the rightful 7/4 favourite. Charlie Clover’s charge was impressive at Lingfield last month, pulling clear to win “going away.” Crucially, he has landed Stall 1. On Chelmsford’s left-handed configuration, the inside rail is a massive advantage. He’s top-rated on the HRB figures (269.6) and finds himself in a race where he can either dictate from the front or sit in the slipstream of the leaders. He is the most professional horse in the line-up.
The Tactical Threat: Jodhpur Blue (FR)
If Harlington falters, Jodhpur Blue will be the one to capitalize. Ian Williams has made a shrewd move dropping this gelding back to 10 furlongs. He’s been caught in the dying strides over further recently, suggesting he has plenty of “go” but lacks the “stay.” If Edward Greatrex can grab the lead early, he may prove very difficult to peg back on this sharp circuit.
The Value Play: Gennadius
For those looking away from the front of the market, Gennadius (8/1) is the wildcard. By the Derby winner Ulysses, this four-year-old has looked like a miler who needs more ground. His win here in January was smooth, and while he disappointed slightly last time, the step up to 1m 2f is a significant move. If the extra two furlongs unlock his pedigree, 8/1 will look like a steal.
The Rest
Bint Al Daar carries top weight but looks to be struggling for consistency, while My Awele has serious stamina questions to answer. The veteran Annexation is hard to support on recent evidence.
The No-Nonsense Verdict
Harlington is the most likely winner and should be backed accordingly. He has the best form, the best draw, and the best speed figures. However, for a speculative each-way alternative, Gennadius is the only one with the potential to improve past the favourite.
Selection: Harlington (FR) Jodhpur Blue.