If you want a relaxing Sunday afternoon, don’t watch the 3.50 at Navan. Between the Heavy ground and the stiff uphill finish, this Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase is going to be a punishing three-mile examination. With only five runners, there’s nowhere to hide.
The Heavyweights
Oscars Brother (11/8)
The data is shouting his name. He is HorseRaceBase’s clear top-rated runner (364.8), and for good reason. He isn’t just a winner; he’s a relentless galloper. His Grade 2 win at Punchestown in November has aged like a fine wine, especially after the second-placed horse came out and won by half the track at Leopardstown.
The Key: Trainer Connor King has just two horses in his yard. This isn’t a “social runner”—this is a horse being prepped for the Grand National. He stays all day, loves the mud, and gets the distance.
Gold Dancer (5/2)
The “Paper Champion.” On official figures (OR 150), he’s the best horse in the race. He’s the Willie Mullins representative, and he’s been mixing it in Grade 1 company. But there’s a nagging doubt: does he actually want three miles in the Navan mud? His best work is over shorter, and his only previous attempt at a marathon trip ended in a “Pulled Up.” He’ll look the winner at the second-to-last fence, but those final 200 yards at Navan feel like 500.
The Others
Bossofthebrownies (3/1): A solid yardstick who will jump and stay, but he lack the “gears” to put the top two away.
The Wallpark (14/1): Gordon Elliott has owned this race for a decade, but this horse has “weakened” in his last three outings. He needs more than just a famous trainer to win this.
The Verdict
In conditions like these, stamina is the only currency that matters. Gold Dancer is the “sexier” horse for the speed-merchants, but Oscars Brother is built for this specific trench warfare. He’s fresh after a 78-day break, he’s proven at the trip, and his form is working out beautifully. Expect Daniel King to keep him prominent and simply out-jump and out-stay the Mullins favourite in the closing stages.
Pick: Oscars Brother (IRE)
Danger: Gold Dancer (Class drop)