Date: Saturday 7th February 2026
Race: Money Back Novices Limited Handicap Chase
Conditions: 2m 7½f, Heavy Ground
If you’re looking for speed and finesse, look elsewhere. The 3.55 at Newbury is going to be a slog. With the ground officially Heavy and nearly three miles to cover, this race won’t be won by the flashiest horse; it will be won by the one with the biggest lungs and the best attitude in the mud.
The ratings are tight, but when the going gets this deep, form figures on similar surfaces count for double.
The Selection: Itseemslikeit (9/2)
David Pipe’s 7-year-old is the clear answer to this puzzle. He arrives here on a hat-trick, having dismantled fields at Ffos Las and Uttoxeter in his last two starts. Crucially, both of those wins were on Heavy and Soft/Heavy ground.
Looking at the data:
Stamina & Ground: His last win saw him “forge away” to win readily over 3 miles. He relishes a stamina test.
Weight Advantage: He carries 11-0. Compare that to the top weight, Jigs Forge (11-10). Giving away 10lbs in a bog at Newbury is a massive ask for the favourite, regardless of his course form.
Form: The stable is in form, and the horse boasts a 43% strike rate in recent stats. The application of the hood/red hood combination has clearly sharpened him up.
He is a dour stayer who jumps well and hits the line hard. In these conditions, he is the one they have to beat.
The Dangers
Captain Bellamy (9/2)
You have to respect the Nicholls/Cobden axis, and this horse has talent (rated 121). However, his form figures (2nd, 5th, 2nd) suggest he finds winning difficult. He was beaten a short head over course and distance last time, but he often finds one too good. I suspect he might find the Pipe runner too relentless at the finish.
Jigs Forge (5/1)
The top weight. He won here last time out (52 days ago) and is undoubtedly talented. However, that win was on Good-to-Soft. Carrying 11st 10lb in Heavy ground is a completely different proposition. He may travel well for a long way, but the weight could anchor him in the final two furlongs.
Silver Thorn (7/1)
Another arriving on a hat-trick (Exeter and Doncaster). He’s improving, but his recent wins were on slightly better ground (Good-to-Soft). He has to prove he can handle the Newbury mud against a proven heavy-ground specialist like the selection.
The Verdict
This is a war of attrition. Jigs Forge has the class but the weight is against him. Captain Bellamy has the consistency but lacks the killer instinct.
ITSEEMSLIKEIT is the solid play. He is a proven mudlark, arrives in peak form, and gets a crucial weight concession from the top rated. Expect Jack Tudor to have him handy, and when the others start wading through treacle in the straight, expect the Pipe runner to power home.
Win: Itseemslikeit
Next Best: Captain Bellamy