Date: Saturday, 7th February 2026
Track: Warwick
Going: Heavy
The rain has done its job at Warwick, and we are looking at a proper stamina test in the mud for this Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 5f. With the ground officially Heavy, you can toss the speed figures out the window; this is about heart, lungs, and the ability to gallop through treacle.
Looking at the card, one horse stands head and shoulders above the rest in the data, despite the burden of top weight.
The Selection: Fingle Bridge (7/4)
Olly Murphy’s Fingle Bridge is the clear form choice here. The HorseRaceBase (HRB) ratings have him on a total of 325.7, significantly clear of his nearest rival (Luttrell Lad at 295.0). That is a massive gap in a handicap and suggests he is well ahead of his mark.
Why he wins:
Consistency: His form figures of 1111213 read like a professional winner. He knows where the winning post is.
Conditions: He has winning form on Heavy ground (Uttoxeter, 20f). The slog won’t bother him.
Forgive the last run: His 3rd place at Ayr 25 days ago looks worse on paper than it was. The comments note he made a mistake when holding “every chance” at the last. Without that error, he likely wins or goes very close.
Trainer Form: Olly Murphy and Gavin Sheehan are operating at a 22% strike rate together.
Carrying 12-0 is never easy in these conditions, but he is an 8-year-old in his prime against a field of largely exposed or out-of-form rivals.
The Danger: Believitanducan (5/1)
If the weight does anchor the favourite, Alan King’s Believitanducan is the one to pick up the pieces.
He is a 5-year-old, meaning he likely has more improvement in the locker than the older horses like Luttrell Lad (10yo) or Prince Zaltar (9yo). He gets a massive stone in weight from Fingle Bridge (carrying 11-0), which could be the equalizer in the final furlong. His win at Plumpton on Soft ground over this trip shows he handles the distance and the cut.
Ones to Avoid
Champagne Twist: Pulled up in his last two starts. You simply cannot trust him with your money right now.
Phantomofthepoints: The run comments are concerning—”weakened soon after” and “weakened before last” appear too often. On Heavy ground, he looks vulnerable in the finish.
The Verdict
The data points firmly one way. Fingle Bridge is the superior animal in this field. The heavy ground suits, the distance is right, and the ratings suggest he has a significant class edge. I expect Gavin Sheehan to keep him out of trouble and grind this lot down.
Win: Fingle Bridge
Forecast: Fingle Bridge to beat Believitanducan