If you’re looking for a leisurely Sunday afternoon, don’t watch the 4.20 at Navan. This is a 3-mile war of attrition on a surface that will resemble chocolate pudding. 18 runners, 17 fences, and a finish that feels like climbing a ladder. Here is the no-nonsense reality of the William Hill Each Way Extra Handicap Chase.
The ‘Favouritism’ Fallacy
The market is gravitating towards Banter At The Bar (5/1) and Gringo Daubrelle (9/2). On paper, they make sense. One is unexposed; the other represents the Elliott powerhouse. In reality? They are poor value. Banter At The Bar is a 6-year-old being asked to carry 12 stone through the Navan mud—a task usually reserved for seasoned monsters. Gringo Daubrelle, meanwhile, has a jumping record that should come with a health warning.
The Real Rating: Supreme Gift (25/1)
The data doesn’t lie. Supreme Gift (IRE) sits at the top of the HorseRaceBase Timewise Master Ratings (278.6). He has a 36% win rate on this surface and his trainer, E. McNamara, strikes at 40% here. He’s been running in higher-class UK handicaps and returns to Ireland on a dangerous mark. At 25/1, he is the glaring “wrong price” in the race.
The Solid Professionals
If you want a horse that will actually finish the race, look at Mighty Oak Lad (8/1). He’s a grinder. He doesn’t have a fancy gear, but he stays until next Tuesday. Carrying 10-10, he has a massive weight advantage over the market leaders.
Similarly, Solly Attwell (10/1) is in the form of his life. Michael Kenneally is claiming 5lbs and is riding out of his skin lately (37% strike rate). He’ll be in the van throughout and won’t buckle when the lung-burning uphill finish begins.
The Verdict
Forget the “sexy” profiles of the favourites. This race belongs to the battle-hardened.
The Value Play: Supreme Gift (IRE) – 25/1 (Each-Way)
The “Sensible” Selection: Mighty Oak Lad – 8/1
The Lay (To Lose): Gringo Daubrelle – Too short for a horse that treats fences as optional.