Date: Saturday, 7th February 2026
Race: 3.20 Newbury – William Hill Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Conditions: 2m ½f, Heavy Ground
If you’re looking for a tactical, speed-orientated hurdle race, look away now. We are at Newbury, it is February, and the ground is officially Heavy. This isn’t a race for the faint-hearted or the flash; it’s a race for lungs, legs, and a willingness to hurt.
We’ve got a field of 16 tackling the Premier Handicap (formerly the Betfair Hurdle). The average Official Rating is 128, but the variance in weight carried (from 12-0 down to 10-11) will be the deciding factor in these conditions.
Here is how I see the form stacking up.
The Front Runners
Let It Rain (13)
Dan Skelton | Harry Skelton | 9/4
The market leader for a reason. This 7yo mare by Kayf Tara was bred for days like this. Her 3rd place finish at Ascot last time out was a sighter, and she comes here off a very dangerous mark of 124. Carrying just 11-0 in heavy ground is a massive advantage when the top weights are lugging 12st. She has a 60% win strike rate and the Skeltons are masters at targeting these Premier Handicaps. She is the one they all have to pass.
Un Sens A La Vie (6)
Nigel Twiston-Davies | Sam Twiston-Davies | 11/2
You never discount NTD at Newbury, especially when the mud is flying. This horse is on a steep upward curve, winning 3 of his 5 career starts. He bolted up at Ludlow last time out. He travels strongly, but this is a significant step up in class from a Class 4 Novice hurdle. He has the engine, but does he have the battle-hardened experience for a 16-runner handicap scrap?
Tutti Quanti (1)
Paul Nicholls | Harry Cobden | 15/2
The class act of the field. Top rated (138) and rightfully so after winning over this course and distance last month. However, he has been punished by the handicapper and has to give weight away to the entire field, carrying a welter burden of 12-0. In Heavy ground, that stone difference to the likes of Let It Rain is a massive anchor. He will run his race, but he’s vulnerable late on.
The Value & Dark Horses
Hot Fuss (8)
Tom Dascombe | David Bass | 10/1
An interesting 5yo. He won nicely at Windsor on Soft last time out and seems to be improving. He’s sitting on a nice racing weight of 11-6. David Bass is a strong jockey when things get tough. If the youth trend holds up, he could be the one to pick up the pieces if the leaders go off too hard.
All In You (10)
Warren Greatrex | James Bowen | 6/1
Lightly raced with only 4 runs, winning his last start at Sandown. He is unexposed and could be absolutely anything. The handicapper has taken a guess at 127, but he might well be a 140 horse in waiting. The risk is the lack of experience in a field this big.
The Verdict
Heavy ground at Newbury changes everything. You need a horse that stays further than two miles and carries a manageable weight.
Tutti Quanti is the best horse in the race, but carrying 12-0 in this bog is a bridge too far. Un Sens A La Vie is promising but short enough in the betting for a horse stepping up this much in grade.
The logic points firmly to LET IT RAIN. She represents the Skelton team who farm these races, she has a featherweight of 11-0, she is bred to swim through heavy ground, and her form figures (11213) show she rarely runs a bad race. She ticks every box for a Premier Handicap winner.
Win Selection: LET IT RAIN
Each-Way Danger: Hot Fuss