Plumpton’s 3.45 on Monday is a classic Class 4 Handicap Hurdle puzzle. Seven runners head to the post for the BetGoodwin Supports The Bentswood Hub Handicap Hurdle, and while the market is focused on a recent winner, the data suggests this is a three-way shootout between a front-runner who forgets to win, a stayer on the upgrade, and a dangerous local lurking in the long grass.
The Pace Angle: Catch Him if You Can
If you like watching a horse blast off in front, keep your eyes on Inferno Sacree (4/1). He has led at the start in all of his last ten runs. He is the top-rated horse on the figures (HRB 277), but he carries a health warning: he is the ultimate “nearly man,” having finished second in his last three starts by minimal margins.
With Murray Dodd taking a valuable 7lb off his back, he will try to steal this from the front. The Plumpton hill is unforgiving, though, and he has a habit of “running out of gas” just as the winning post comes into view.
The Strongest Form: Luwdvig (5/2)
The 21-day layoff since Luwdvig’s win at Lingfield looks perfect. He didn’t just win that day; he dominated, pulling clear “readily” on Soft ground. While a 5lb rise in the weights is the penalty for success, he is the only runner in this field who looks like he’s still ahead of the handicapper. If the pace set by Inferno Sacree collapses, Luwdvig is the one most likely to pick up the pieces.
The Home Turf Danger: Our Papa Smurf (6/1)
You can never ignore a Moore runner at Plumpton. Our Papa Smurf won here just 14 days ago over two miles. The big question is the extra half-mile. He’s by a speed sire (Too Darn Hot), and this 2m4½f trip on Soft ground will test every ounce of his stamina. However, the stable is in red-hot form, and he knows exactly how to navigate this tricky track.
The Verdict
Luwdvig (FR) is the professional’s choice. He has the winning momentum, handles the conditions, and doesn’t have the mental baggage of the serial runner-up, Inferno Sacree.
Selection: Luwdvig (FR)
Danger: Inferno Sacree (The clear threat if given too much rope)
Value Play: Activist (8/1) – David Pipe’s 40% strike rate this fortnight makes him a massive price for those looking for an upset.