If you’re looking for a Monday afternoon slog, the 4.30 at Catterick provides exactly that. We’re looking at a 1m 7½f Handicap Hurdle on Heavy ground. In these conditions, fitness and course experience aren’t just bonuses—they’re requirements.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown of where the money should go.
The One to Beat: Haarar (13/8)
It’s hard to look past Haarar. Sam England’s 7-year-old is the defending champion, having won this exact race last year. He arrives in peak condition, seeking a hat-trick after a dominant display at Carlisle just six days ago.
The Pro: He is the clear top-rated horse on the TimeWise Master Ratings (317.1). His speed figure of 76.0 towers over this field.
The Con: He’s running off a career-high mark of 118 and carrying 11-13. That is a lot of lead to lug through the Catterick mud.
Verdict: He’s the most likely winner, but at 13/8, the value is thin.
The Class Danger: Demoiselle Kap (7/1)
Jennie Candlish’s mare was on a tear with four straight wins before a blip at Ludlow last month (hampered by fog).
The Pro: A 57% strike rate for the horse/trainer/jockey combination. She is a winner who knows how to get her head in front.
The Con: Top weight of 12-0 is a massive ask on heavy ground, and her recent wins have largely come over fences. Switching back to hurdles here might not be the “easy” task the odds suggest.
The Value Play: Three Dons (100/30)
If Haarar’s weight or price puts you off, Three Dons is the logical alternative.
The Pro: He loves a battle and has an excellent surface record (42% win rate on this type of ground).
The Play: He’s been knocking on the door with consistent places. If the front-runners (Comanche Magic and Blue Bear) go too hard too soon, Three Dons is the one most likely to pick up the pieces.
The Dark Horse: Magnolia (8/1)
A former Course & Distance winner. While her recent form looks middling (55), she is a “held up” type. In a race where several runners like to lead, she could benefit from a collapse in the pace and steam through late to snatch a place.
Final Verdict
Haarar is the “probability” pick—he loves the track and is in the form of his life. However, for a better return, Three Dons represents the “statistical” value given his proficiency in the mud.
The Forecast: 1st Haarar, 2nd Three Dons.