Wolverhampton’s Monday afternoon card (4.25) features a small but fascinating Class 4 handicap over the seven-furlong trip. With only five runners, there is nowhere to hide. It’s a tactical puzzle where the primary question is: Do you back the unexposed course specialist or the progressive top-weight?
The Profile: Horwich (3/1)
Clive Cox’s Horwich is the ultimate “horse for a course.” He is two-from-two at Dunstall Park, both over this exact trip. His latest victory on 27th January was a dominant “made-all” performance where he was never seriously challenged.
Making his handicap debut off a mark of 77, he looks potentially well-treated. He carries 9-4, receiving a significant 5lb from the favourite. At Wolverhampton, a horse that knows exactly where the finish line is and handles the tight turns of the Tapeta surface is worth their weight in gold.
The Class Act: Utmost Good Faith (Evens)
You cannot ignore Utmost Good Faith. Since joining George Boughey, he has looked like a different animal. His 4.5-length demolition job at Kempton last month was visually impressive, but the handicapper hasn’t missed it, hitting him with a 10lb rise.
With Billy Loughnane—the king of Wolverhampton—in the plate, he will likely go off as a very short-priced favourite. However, carrying 9-9 on a track as sharp as this is a big ask for any three-year-old.
The Tactical Threat: Dagger Strike (5/1)
Archie Watson and Hollie Doyle are a lethal combination in small-field handicaps. Dagger Strike was a solid second at Southwell last time out and has a win at Newcastle on his CV. He is battle-hardened and consistent, though he arguably lacks the “ceiling” of the top two.
The No-Nonsense Play
While Utmost Good Faith is the form choice, the value sits squarely with HORWICH.
In a five-runner race, track position is everything. Horwich has shown he can lead or sit prominently, and his unbeaten record at this venue shouldn’t be overlooked. He is unexposed, weighted to win, and has the tactical speed to grab the rail early and hold it.
Selection: Horwich (Win)
Danger: Utmost Good Faith