Race: 2.35 Ayr – Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)
Date: Tuesday, 10th February 2026
Conditions: 2m 4½f, Soft
If you’re looking for a bet at Ayr today, the 2.35 Maiden Hurdle is where the smart money should be heading. We’ve got a field of eleven facing the starter on soft ground over an intermediate trip, and while the market might look open, the data points firmly in one direction.
The One To Beat: Apache Tribe (2/1)
Let’s not overcomplicate this. Apache Tribe is the standout horse in the race.
The Numbers: He tops the HorseRaceBase (HRB) ratings with a massive 247.8 – that’s nearly 85 points clear of the second-best, Dubhain.
The Form: His bumper win at Listowel last September was visually impressive (“led travelling well… easily”). He showed a turn of foot on yielding ground that none of these rivals can match.
The Query: He’s been off for 139 days. In a maiden hurdle, fitness is key, but Noel Kelly’s yard is operating at a 23% strike rate with this jockey combo. He’s the class angle.
The Danger: Dubhain (7/2)
If Apache Tribe fluffs his lines on debut over timber, Dubhain is the one to pick up the pieces.
The Jockey: Brian Hughes takes the ride. He has a 15% strike rate here and rides this track better than anyone.
The Course Form: He finished 3rd here in a heavy ground bumper in January. He handles the mud and the track.
The Verdict: He’s the solid each-way alternative, but he lacks the raw engine of the favourite.
The Trap: Hopeless Dancer (5/1)
Don’t get sucked in by the form figures (32232). Hopeless Dancer is what we call “exposed.”
He’s had five cracks at hurdles and found one too good every time.
He’s a consistent placer, perfect for your Placepot or Exacta, but he’s likely to be outclassed for the win again today.
The Market Watch: Nopresentliketime (6/1)
Gordon Elliott and Sean Bowen team up here, and their stats at Ayr are frightening – a 47% strike rate (8 wins from 17 runs).
The Problem: He hasn’t been seen for 405 days. That is a lifetime in racing.
The Play: Watch the market. If he drifts, ignore him. If he’s smashed into 4/1 or shorter, someone knows he’s ready.
The Verdict
This is a race where class should prevail over experience. APACHE TRIBE has the bumper form to suggest he’s a 120+ rated hurdler in the making. On soft ground, his ability to travel will be the difference.
Win: Apache Tribe (2/1)
Forecast (Exacta): Apache Tribe to beat Dubhain