Date: Tuesday 10th February 2026
Race: 3.05 Ayr – 100% Racing TV Profits Back To Racing Handicap Chase (Class 4)
Conditions: Soft, 2m ½f
Midweek racing at Ayr often throws up a puzzle or two, and the 3.05 is a classic example. The market will tell you this is a one-horse race for the Irish raider. The data says otherwise.
Here is the no-nonsense breakdown.
The Favourite: The Trap
Big Stage (IRE) – 11/4 Trainer: Gordon Elliott | Jockey: Sean Bowen
On paper, this looks like a penalty kick. The HorseRaceBase ratings have him on a massive 267.6—nearly 20 points clear of the field. Gordon Elliott has a ludicrous 47% strike rate with this specific profile at Ayr.
But dig deeper. Big Stage is still a maiden over fences. His run comments are littered with red flags: “weakened,” “no extra,” “mistake.” He travels well and finds nothing off the bridle. Do you really want to take short odds on a horse that has made a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory? He is a classic Lay.
The Solid Pick: The Front Runner
From The Clouds (FR) – 7/2 Trainer: Lucinda Russell
If Big Stage is the “nearly” horse, From The Clouds is the “honest” one. He is a confirmed front-runner who likes to get on with it (“made all,” “led”). On soft ground at Ayr, over this trip, tactics are simple: get to the front, jump them silly, and hold on.
He has a 29% strike rate under these conditions and comes from the Lucinda Russell yard, which targets this meeting religiously. He is the safest conveyance in the race.
The Value Play: The Plot Job
Dance Thief (IRE) – 7/1 Trainer: R Michael Smith
This is where the race gets interesting. Cast your mind back exactly one year: Dance Thief won this very race on Feb 11, 2025.
His preparation this year has been text-book. He had a quiet spin over hurdles just 10 days ago. That wasn’t a serious race; that was a “pipe-opener”—a fitness sharpener to blow away the cobwebs without the physical toll of jumping fences. He is here to defend his crown, and at 7/1, he is the standout value.
The Dark Horse
Ballyfort (IRE) – 10/1
A simple observation: Ballyfort has a habit of “jumping markedly left.” At a right-handed track, that’s a disaster. At Ayr (a left-handed track), it’s an asset. He cuts the corners naturally. If the top two take each other on, he’s the one picking up the pieces.
The Verdict
The bookies are pricing this on Gordon Elliott’s reputation, not the horse’s actual finishing ability. Ignore the noise.
The Win: From The Clouds (7/2) – Likely to dictate the pace and simply out-jump the favourite.
The Value/EW: Dance Thief (7/1) – The defending champion who has been laid out specifically for this race.